52-Week Range
$155 – $214
Mid-range, building
Q1 2026 Revenue
$15.1B
+12.4% YoY
FY2026 EPS Guide
$14.08–14.28
Non-GAAP adj.
P/E (FY2026E)
14.1×
Sector median ~18x
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy
18B · 2H · 0S
Dividend Yield
3.4%
20 consecutive raises
12-Month Price History
Income Statement Forecast ($B) · E = Estimate
| FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue by Key Product | |||||||
| Humira (US + Int'l) | $21.2B | $14.4B | $10.5B | $8.9B | $7.5B | $6.3B | $5.4B |
| Skyrizi | $3.5B | $5.7B | $8.2B | $13.0B | $17.4B | $21.0B | $23.5B |
| Rinvoq | $2.1B | $3.2B | $5.5B | $7.6B | $9.2B | $11.0B | $12.5B |
| Botox Therapeutic | $2.6B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.6B | $3.9B |
| Aesthetics (Juvederm+) | $2.7B | $2.4B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $3.0B |
| Oncology + Other | $3.2B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $4.6B | $5.1B | $5.8B | $6.5B |
| Total Revenue | $58.1B | $58.1B | $56.3B | $55.1B | $67.3B | $73.5B | $79.0B |
| YoY Growth | +3% | 0% | -3% | -2% | +22% | +9% | +7% |
| Profitability | |||||||
| Gross Profit | $41.6B | $39.0B | $38.7B | $40.5B | $51.3B | $56.8B | $62.0B |
| Gross Margin | 71.6% | 67.2% | 68.7% | 73.5% | 76.2% | 77.3% | 78.5% |
| R&D | $6.2B | $5.9B | $7.5B | $8.2B | $8.9B | $9.5B | $10.0B |
| SG&A | $9.3B | $9.5B | $9.1B | $9.8B | $11.8B | $12.6B | $13.0B |
| Adj. Operating Income | $27.5B | $26.4B | $24.5B | $25.8B | $30.2B | $34.0B | $37.5B |
| Adj. Operating Margin | 47.3% | 45.4% | 43.5% | 46.8% | 44.9% | 46.3% | 47.5% |
| Adj. EPS (Diluted) | $13.77 | $11.22 | $10.12 | $12.12 | $14.18 | $16.50 | $18.75 |
| EPS Growth YoY | +8% | -19% | -10% | +20% | +17% | +16% | +14% |
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow ($B)
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Cash & Investments | $8.1B | $5.9B | $7.2B | $9.5B | $11.2B | $13.8B |
| Total Debt | $61.4B | $57.1B | $54.4B | $50.0B | $45.5B | $40.0B |
| Net Debt | $53.3B | $51.2B | $47.2B | $40.5B | $34.3B | $26.2B |
| Total Equity | $17.5B | $16.7B | $18.3B | $22.1B | $27.5B | $33.0B |
| Cash Flow | ||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | $22.7B | $23.1B | $22.4B | $26.8B | $30.5B | $33.8B |
| Capital Expenditures | -$0.9B | -$0.8B | -$1.0B | -$1.2B | -$1.3B | -$1.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $21.8B | $22.3B | $21.4B | $25.6B | $29.2B | $32.4B |
| FCF Margin | 37.5% | 39.6% | 38.8% | 38.1% | 39.7% | 41.0% |
| Dividends Paid | -$9.4B | -$9.8B | -$10.2B | -$10.8B | -$11.4B | -$12.0B |
Revenue & EPS Trajectory
Revenue ($B, left)
Adj. EPS (right)
Estimated
Valuation Framework
Base Case Price Target
$235
16.6× FY2026E adj. EPS · +18% upside + 3.4% div
DCF Range (10yr, 9% WACC, 2% terminal)
$215–$260
Midpoint $237 · FCF CAGR 7–10%, GM expansion to 78%
| Metric | ABBV Current | ABBV @ PT $235 | PFE (Peer) | BMY (Peer) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | ~$357B | ~$421B | ~$148B | ~$129B |
| EV / EBITDA (2026E) | 11.8× | 13.9× | 8.5× | 7.2× |
| P/E Non-GAAP (2026E) | 14.1× | 16.6× | 9.0× | 7.8× |
| Revenue Growth (2026E) | +22% | — | -2% | -5% |
| FCF Yield (2026E) | 7.2% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% | 2.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| Consensus PT | $214 | — | $27 | $62 |
ABBV commands a premium over peers on growth grounds — Skyrizi+Rinvoq delivering +25% combined growth vs. flat/declining portfolios at PFE/BMY. The 14x forward P/E represents an undemanding multiple for a company growing EPS double-digits with $25B+ annual FCF. Re-rating to 16–17x on confirmed Skyrizi/Rinvoq trajectory is our primary PT driver.
12-Month Price Target Scenarios
Bull Case
$275
+38% upside + dividend
Skyrizi derm+GI inflects above $18B. Rinvoq RA/atopic label adds to $10B+ trajectory. Emraclidine Phase 3 schizophrenia data positive. Aesthetics recovery accelerates. Multiple re-rates to 18–19x on rising confidence in post-LOE portfolio durability.
Base Case
$235
+18% price + 3.4% div
Skyrizi reaches $17B+. Rinvoq $9B+. Humira biosimilars stabilize at manageable rate. FY2026 EPS of $14.18 guides to $16.50 in 2027E. Re-rating from 14x to 16.6x justified by proven Humira replacement.
Bear Case
$155
-22% downside
Skyrizi IL-23 class faces unexpected competitive pressure from orals. Rinvoq JAK inhibitor safety label expanded. Emraclidine Phase 3 fails. Biosimilar erosion of Humira accelerates faster than model. Multiple compresses to 11x on growth concerns.
Key Catalysts — Next 12 Months
Jul 25, 2026
Q2 2026 Earnings & Full-Year Raise
Q2 results will confirm Skyrizi GI trajectory ($2.0B+ segment) and Rinvoq RA/PsA ramp. Street expects ~$16.0B revenue. A beat + FY2026E guidance raise to $68B+ is the base case and would act as an immediate re-rating catalyst. We model EPS of $3.63 in Q2.
H2 2026
Emraclidine (M4 Agonist) Phase 3 Data — Schizophrenia
Emraclidine is the highest-value pipeline asset acquired through Cerevel Therapeutics ($8.7B deal). Phase 3 EMPOWER-1/2 trials in schizophrenia read out in H2 2026. If positive (Phase 2 showed 37% improvement on PANSS vs. 20% placebo), this adds a potential $4–6B peak-sales asset and unlocks a CNS platform.
2026–2027
Skyrizi Crohn's Disease & GI Label Expansion
Skyrizi has already received FDA approval in moderate-to-severe Crohn's and ulcerative colitis. Physicians are adopting rapidly — GI revenue is the fastest-growing Skyrizi segment at +100%+ YoY. Market penetration of 8–12% of eligible biologic-naive UC/CD patients represents $5B+ incremental opportunity.
2026
Aesthetics Recovery — China + Premium Toxin Pricing
Allergan Aesthetics (Botox, Juvederm) has been pressured by China macro and US consumer softness. Recovery in China discretionary spending and the premium Botox Cosmetic launch in a new prefilled syringe format could add $200–300M incremental revenue and lift the aesthetics multiple.
Ongoing
Rinvoq Label Expansions — Atopic Dermatitis + Beyond
Rinvoq's JAK-1 selectivity profile supports expansion into atopic dermatitis, alopecia areata (already approved), and potentially other IL-4/13 or type-2 inflammatory conditions. Each new label adds ~$500M–$1B incremental revenue. Seven approved indications today; two more in late-stage development.
Risk Register
High
JAK Inhibitor Safety Label Risk (Rinvoq)
The FDA's boxed warning on all JAK inhibitors (serious infections, malignancies, MACE) limits Rinvoq's addressable market vs. biologics. If new adverse event data triggers a label tightening or prescribing restriction, it could materially impact the $9B+ FY2026E Rinvoq forecast. Currently a manageable but real risk — requires monitoring upcoming MACE meta-analyses.
High
IL-23 / IL-17 Competitive Intensification (Skyrizi)
Skyrizi competes in crowded immunology — against Stelara (biosimilars launching 2023–2025), Tremfya (J&J), Cosentyx (Novartis), and oral JAK inhibitors. While Skyrizi's differentiation in psoriasis (PASI 100 responses) is strong, emerging oral TYK2 inhibitors like Sotyktu (BMS) could capture new biologic-naive patients.
Med
IRA Drug Price Negotiation (Medicare)
The Inflation Reduction Act's Medicare drug price negotiation framework is expanding in 2026–2028. Skyrizi and/or Rinvoq could enter the negotiation list by 2028–2030 depending on revenue thresholds. Price reductions of 20–60% on Medicare volumes would be material. ABBV is actively filing litigation challenges to the IRA framework.
Med
Emraclidine Phase 3 Failure
ABBV paid $8.7B for Cerevel primarily for emraclidine. A Phase 3 failure in schizophrenia would eliminate $4–6B of peak-sales optionality, cause a meaningful multiple de-rating, and require ABBV to rebuild pipeline confidence through acquisitions.
Low
Debt Load from M&A
ABBV carries ~$54B in total debt, elevated from the Allergan acquisition ($63B, 2020). With $22B+ annual FCF the balance sheet is deleveraging rapidly. Net debt / EBITDA is tracking toward 1.5x by FY2027E from 2.2x today. This risk is diminishing but warrants monitoring in a rate environment.
Market Sentiment & Positioning
Analyst Rating
Strong Buy
18 Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell
Avg Price Target
$214
Range: $185 – $260
Hedge Fund Flow
Positive
Net buyers last 2 quarters
Insider Activity
Neutral
No significant open-market buys
Short Interest
1.8%
Low short interest; small float
SmartScore
8/10
Outperform
The Bottom Line
▶ Investment Conclusion · BUY · PT $235
AbbVie has solved its existential problem. Humira biosimilar erosion — long the most-feared event in large-cap pharma — is being more than offset by Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which combined grew 26% YoY in Q1 2026 to $6.6B. The trajectory toward a combined $26B+ peak puts AbbVie in the category of companies with the most durable large-cap growth in healthcare.
At 14x forward earnings with a 3.4% dividend, investors are not paying for this growth — the market is still pricing in Humira cliff uncertainty that has materially resolved. With $25B+ in annual FCF, ABBV has the capacity to fund dividend growth (20 consecutive annual raises), debt paydown, and still execute bolt-on acquisitions to sustain the pipeline beyond Skyrizi/Rinvoq's own patent horizons (2032–2036E). We rate ABBV BUY with a 12-month price target of $235.
At 14x forward earnings with a 3.4% dividend, investors are not paying for this growth — the market is still pricing in Humira cliff uncertainty that has materially resolved. With $25B+ in annual FCF, ABBV has the capacity to fund dividend growth (20 consecutive annual raises), debt paydown, and still execute bolt-on acquisitions to sustain the pipeline beyond Skyrizi/Rinvoq's own patent horizons (2032–2036E). We rate ABBV BUY with a 12-month price target of $235.
MARKET BUZZ RESEARCH — This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All estimates are Market Buzz projections. Past performance is not indicative of future results. See full disclosures at MarketBuzz.com/disclosures. Data as of May 31, 2026.