| Ticker | Company | ~May 2025 | ~May 2026 | 1Y Return | Market Cap | Consensus | HF Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML ★ | ASML Holding | ~$700 | ~$822 | +115.9% | $619B | Strong Buy | 0.76 |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | ~$175 | ~$185 | ~+5% | $157B | Strong Buy | 0.60 |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | ~$680 | ~$720 | ~+6% | $98B | Strong Buy | 0.58 |
| LRCX | Lam Research | ~$78 | ~$82 | ~+5% | $106B | Strong Buy | 0.55 |
| INTC | Intel | ~$21 | ~$22 | ~+5% | $93B | Hold | 0.28 |
| TSM | TSMC | ~$170 | ~$195 | ~+15% | $1.02T | Strong Buy | 0.65 |
★ ASML dramatically outperformed all semiconductor equipment peers with +115.9% 1-year return. ASML's monopoly on EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines creates an irreplaceable position in the AI semiconductor supply chain. Note: 1Y return reflects strong re-rating after 2024 order book clarification.
| Firm | Rating | PT (USD equiv.) |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Strong Buy | ~$1,050 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | ~$950 |
| UBS | Buy | ~$900 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | ~$1,000 |
| Barclays | Buy | ~$1,100 |
| HSBC | Buy | ~$950 |
Note: TipRanks avg PT $1,791 may reflect older pre-correction targets; current consensus ~$950–1,100 USD is more representative.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (€) | YoY Growth | Net Income (€) | Net Margin | Free Cash Flow (€) | FCF Margin | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | €6.8B | — | €1.6B | 23.5% | €1.5B | 22.1% | EUV ramp beginning |
| FY2017 | €9.0B | +32% | €2.1B | 23.1% | €1.4B | 15.6% | First EUV sales to TSMC |
| FY2018 | €10.9B | +21% | €2.6B | 23.9% | €2.3B | 21.1% | EUV production ramp |
| FY2019 | €11.8B | +8% | €2.6B | 22.0% | €3.2B | 27.1% | EUV demand accelerating |
| FY2020 | €14.0B | +19% | €3.6B | 25.7% | €3.8B | 27.1% | Covid resilient; semi boom |
| FY2021 | €18.6B | +33% | €5.9B | 31.7% | €4.8B | 25.8% | Supercycle; High-NA development |
| FY2022 | €21.2B | +14% | €5.6B | 26.4% | €4.2B | 19.8% | Record backlog €40B+ |
| FY2023 | €27.6B | +30% | €7.8B | 28.3% | €6.2B | 22.5% | Memory recovery; AI demand |
| FY2024 | €28.3B | +3% | €7.8B | 27.6% | €7.0B | 24.7% | Order book reset; China restrictions |
| FY2025 | €32.7B | +15.5% | €9.6B | 29.4% | €10.6B | 32.4% | High-NA EUV commercialization |
ASML grew revenue 3.6× over 9 years (€9.0B → €32.7B) with remarkably consistent net margin expansion from ~23% to 29.4% in FY2025. FCF grew from €1.4B to €10.6B — a 7.6× increase — with FCF margin reaching 32.4% (higher than net margin, reflecting working capital efficiency). The company is getting consistently more profitable on both top and bottom line. Key driver: ASML's EUV monopoly gives it extraordinary pricing power — a single High-NA EUV machine costs ~€380M ($400M+). The FY2024 growth slowdown was a one-time order book reset following demand overshoot; 2025 returned to strong growth. High-NA EUV shipments (Intel, TSMC, Samsung as early customers) represent the next growth vector through 2030.
| Company | P/E (TTM) | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Rev Growth | Net Margin | Monopoly Moat? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML ★ | 53.3× | ~28× | ~35× | ~58× | +15.5% | 29.4% | ✅ Yes (EUV) |
| AMAT | ~18× | ~16× | ~14× | ~20× | +6% | 27% | ❌ Competitive |
| KLAC | ~27× | ~24× | ~22× | ~30× | +8% | 33% | ⚠️ Process Control Leader |
| LRCX | ~18× | ~15× | ~14× | ~20× | +6% | 28% | ❌ Competitive |
| Semi Equip. Median | ~22× | ~18× | ~16× | — | — | ~25% | — |
ASML commands a significant premium to peers — justified by its unique monopoly on EUV lithography. No alternative exists; every advanced chip (below 7nm) from TSMC, Samsung, or Intel requires ASML EUV. Forward P/E of ~28× is reasonable for a monopoly with 15%+ revenue growth.
| Category | Assessment | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | Exceptional | 10/10 | Global monopoly on EUV lithography — irreplaceable in AI chip supply chain |
| Revenue Growth | Strong | 8/10 | €32.7B (+15.5%); 2030 target €44–60B |
| Profitability Trend | Excellent | 9/10 | Net margin 29.4%; FCF margin 32.4%; decade of steady expansion |
| Valuation | Premium | 7/10 | 53× TTM P/E; 28× forward — monopoly premium warranted |
| Analyst Sentiment | Strong Buy | 9/10 | 6B/0H/0S — 100% buy rate; rare unanimity |
| Hedge Fund Activity | High | 8/10 | HF Score 0.76; broad institutional ownership |
| Technical Setup | Buy | 8/10 | 11/12 MAs bullish; RSI 59.5; clean uptrend |
| Key Risk | China / Geo | — | Export restrictions + Taiwan geopolitical risk are key overhang |
| OVERALL RATING | STRONG BUY | 8.6/10 | Only monopoly in AI semiconductor supply chain; long-duration compounder; China/Taiwan risk to watch |