52-Week Range
$580 – $900
Near 52-wk high
Q1 2026 Revenue
€8.8B
+46% YoY
Q1 Gross Margin
53.0%
+5pts vs Q4 2025
Order Backlog
€38.8B
9-month+ visibility
FY2026E Revenue
€36–40B
Co. guidance
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy
28B · 5H · 0S
Income Statement Forecast (€B) · E = Estimate
| FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||||||
| EUV Systems | €4.2B | €5.8B | €8.8B | €7.5B | €10.5B | €15.0B | €20.0B |
| DUV + Other Systems | €9.2B | €12.3B | €12.0B | €11.5B | €13.5B | €17.0B | €19.0B |
| Installed Base / Services | €4.0B | €4.4B | €5.2B | €5.6B | €6.0B | €7.0B | €8.5B |
| Total Revenue | €18.6B | €21.2B | €27.6B | €28.3B | €32.3B | €38.0B | €46.0B |
| YoY Growth | +33% | +14% | +30% | +2% | +14% | +18% | +21% |
| Profitability | |||||||
| Gross Margin | 52.7% | 50.5% | 51.3% | 51.3% | 52.0% | 53.5% | 56.0% |
| R&D Spending | €2.5B | €3.3B | €4.0B | €4.5B | €4.8B | €5.2B | €5.8B |
| Net Income | €5.9B | €5.6B | €7.8B | €7.2B | €8.8B | €12.0B | €17.5B |
| EPS (Diluted) | €14.7 | €14.2 | €19.9 | €18.6 | €22.0 | €29.0 | €43.0 |
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow (€B)
| FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash Flow | ||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | €4.0B | €5.5B | €5.6B | €8.5B | €12.5B | €18.0B |
| Capital Expenditures | €1.0B | €1.3B | €1.6B | €1.8B | €2.2B | €2.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | €3.0B | €4.2B | €4.0B | €6.7B | €10.3B | €15.5B |
| FCF Margin | 14.2% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 20.7% | 27.1% | 33.7% |
| Cash & Investments | €7.6B | €6.0B | €7.8B | €9.5B | €11.0B | €14.0B |
| Buybacks | €4.0B | €5.2B | €4.3B | €5.0B | €5.5B | €7.0B |
Charts
Revenue (€B) & Op. Margin %
Price History & 12-Month Price Target
Valuation Framework
Base Case PT
€870 / $900
30× FY2026E EPS · +17% upside
DCF (10yr, 9% WACC, 3% terminal)
€840–950
EUV monopoly rent; High-NA ramp FY2027+
| Metric | ASML Current | ASML @ PT | AMAT (Peer) | LRCX (Peer) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | ~$320B | ~$375B | ~$140B | ~$105B |
| P/E (FY2026E) | 26.5× | 31.0× | 18× | 17× |
| Revenue Growth (2026E) | +18% | — | +9% | +8% |
| Gross Margin (2026E) | 53.5% | — | 47% | 46% |
| Backlog / Annual Rev | 1.0× | — | 0.3× | 0.3× |
12-Month Scenarios
Bull Case
€1,100
+43% upside
High-NA EUV volume orders accelerate beyond 20 units/yr. Intel 18A yield success drives large DUV follow-on. FY2026 beats at €42B+. Gross margins reach 56% as High-NA ASP (€300M+) lifts mix. China restriction partially eased for mature nodes. Multiple re-rates to 38x.
Base Case
€870
+13% upside
FY2026 hits midpoint of €38B guidance. EUV shipments 75 units; High-NA 8 units. Gross margin 53.5%. China mix stays at 15–20%. EPS of €29 tracking toward €43 in FY2027. Multiple holds at 30x on monopoly premium.
Bear Case
€560
-27% downside
Memory cycle remains weak; DRAM oversupply depresses Samsung/Micron capex. Intel fabs delayed again. High-NA yield issues slow ramp. FY2026 at low end €36B. EPS misses at €24. Multiple compresses to 23x on demand uncertainty.
Key Catalysts
Jul 16, 2026
Q2 2026 Earnings & Order Book Update
The order book is the leading indicator everyone watches. Q2 bookings above €9B and a FY2026 guidance raise to the upper end of €38–40B range would be a strong catalyst. Any High-NA EUV order count increase beyond the current 20-unit 2026 build plan is a significant upside signal.
2026–2028
High-NA EUV Ramp — TWINSCAN EXE:5000
The High-NA EUV machine (ASP ~€300M vs €180M for standard EUV) is beginning production ramps at Intel, TSMC, and Samsung for 2nm-class nodes. Each additional unit shipped adds ~€300M revenue and improves gross margin mix. Our model assumes 8 High-NA units in FY2026 rising to 25+ in FY2028.
2026
US CHIPS Act Manufacturing Wave
TSMC Arizona (N3E), Intel Ohio/Arizona, Samsung Texas, Micron Idaho — all require ASML EUV tools. CHIPS Act-subsidized fab construction is driving a wave of equipment orders that peaks in 2027. ASML's US revenue share is rising from ~10% to ~25% over 2024–2028.
2026–2027
Memory Capex Recovery
DRAM and NAND investment cycles are recovering from the 2023–2024 trough. HBM3E for AI accelerators requires leading-edge DRAM; every HBM stack needs EUV for tight geometry. Samsung and SK Hynix capex is increasing 30%+ in 2026 — a direct read-through to ASML EUV demand.
Risk Register
High
China Export Restrictions Escalation
China represented 49% of ASML revenue in 2023; export restrictions have compressed this to 19% by Q1 2026. Any further restriction (e.g., ban on DUV i-line/KrF tools to non-leading fabs) could remove €3–6B annually. Our model already prices in 15% China mix; further restriction is the primary downside surprise risk.
High
Semiconductor Capex Cycle Timing
ASML's revenue is tied to chipmaker capex decisions which can shift 15–25% year-over-year. A memory glut, AI capex pause, or macro-driven demand collapse could push FY2027 shipments materially below plan. The backlog provides 9+ months of revenue protection but is not immune to cancellations.
Med
High-NA EUV Yield & Customer Adoption
The High-NA EUV machine is the most complex optical system ever commercialized. If Intel's 18A or TSMC N2 process nodes experience yield issues using High-NA, adoption could slow. This would delay the ~€300M ASP revenue mix shift that underlies our FY2027 margin expansion thesis.
Low
EUR/USD Currency Headwinds
ASML reports in euros but derives ~70% of revenue in USD/USD-linked currencies. A significant EUR appreciation reduces USD-denominated investment returns and slightly compresses margins on USD-priced equipment. Currently a minor factor given stable USD outlook.
Market Sentiment
Analyst Rating
Strong Buy
28B · 5H · 0S
Avg Price Target
€860
Range: €720 – €1,020
Hedge Fund Flow
Positive
Net buyers Q1 2026
Short Interest
1.1%
Very low conviction short
SmartScore
8/10
Outperform
Dividend Yield
0.7%
+buyback program
The Bottom Line
▶ BUY · PT €870 / $900
ASML occupies a unique position in global technology: it is the only company in the world that can manufacture the machines necessary to produce leading-edge chips. This is not a competitive moat — it is a structural monopoly built on 40 years of photolithography R&D, thousands of patents, and supply chain integration that cannot be replicated in this decade. The High-NA EUV transition adds a second growth platform at triple the ASP of current EUV tools.
At 26.5x forward earnings, ASML is valued like a quality industrial company — not a technology monopoly. As the High-NA ramp drives margin expansion in 2027–2028, we expect a meaningful re-rating. We rate ASML BUY with a PT of €870 / $900.
At 26.5x forward earnings, ASML is valued like a quality industrial company — not a technology monopoly. As the High-NA ramp drives margin expansion in 2027–2028, we expect a meaningful re-rating. We rate ASML BUY with a PT of €870 / $900.
MARKET BUZZ RESEARCH — Informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All estimates are Market Buzz projections. Data as of May 31, 2026.