★ Equity ResearchSpecialty ContractorMay 31, 2026

Dycom Industries

Pure-Play Operator of America's Fiber & 5G Supercycle

BUY  —  Overweight
NYSE: DY  |  Current Price (May 30, 2026)
$510.40
▲ 12-Month Price Target: $615  (+20.5%)
Market Cap
$13.3B
~26.0M diluted shares
52-Week Range
$362–$578
+41% from 52-wk low
P/E FY27E
28.7x
$510 / $17.77E EPS
EV/EBITDA FY27E
15.2x
EV $14.9B / $978M EBITDA
Backlog (Record)
$11.9B
+68% YoY; 1.6x FY27E Rev
FY27 Guidance
$7.38–7.65B
Raised May 2026; +37% YoY
FCF Yield
3.2%
FY27E $428M / $13.3B MktCap

Investment Thesis

◆ BEAD Supercycle: $60B+ Federal Tailwind

The $42.5B Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program — the largest telecom infrastructure investment in U.S. history — begins material contractor deployment in 2026–2028. State matching funds and co-investment bring total addressable spend above $60B. Dycom, with 26,000+ credentialed fiber technicians and the deepest AT&T/Comcast relationships in the industry, is the primary execution vehicle. Backlog of $11.9B (all-time record, +68% YoY) reflects early award momentum.

◆ AT&T & Comcast Fiber Acceleration

AT&T's 30M-passing fiber target and Comcast's DOCSIS 4.0 symmetrical-gig upgrade represent incremental capex of $10–14B above prior budgets over 3 years. Dycom derives ~35% of revenue from AT&T (MSA extended through 2030) and ~18% from Comcast. These relationships are effectively long-duration annuities backed by federally mandated broadband expansion obligations. No competitor has comparable penetration of AT&T's outside-plant program.

◆ Q1 FY27 Blowout Validates Execution Capability

Q1 FY27 (Feb–Apr 2026): Revenue $1.965B (+56% YoY) vs. consensus $1.74B; EPS $4.42 vs. $2.72 estimate — the largest quarterly beat in Dycom history. Gross margin expanded 90bps YoY to 19.4% as volume efficiencies offset labor inflation. Management raised FY27 guidance at the print. The sequential acceleration of organic growth (Q1 organic +38%) demonstrates capacity is not a constraint — demand is the limiting factor.

◆ NTI Acquisition: Southeast Footprint + 4,800 Technicians

The $275M acquisition of National Technology Integrators (NTI) closed in Q3 FY26, adding 4,800 specialized technicians with outside-plant and wireless infrastructure expertise in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic — Dycom's historically underrepresented markets. NTI contributed $142M in Q1 FY27 (7.2% of total revenue). Management targets $30M in annualized synergies by FY28, driven by workforce scheduling optimization and shared procurement. The transaction was immediately accretive to EPS.

Financial Model — Income Statement (USD $M, FY ends January)

USD $MFY24AFY25AFY26AFY27EFY28EFY29E
REVENUE BREAKDOWN
  Telecom / Fiber3,0903,6534,1105,7906,8507,700
  Cable / MSO9691,1271,2601,5801,7601,900
  Utilities & Other137121110150190300
Total Revenue4,1964,9015,4807,5208,8009,900
  YoY Growth+9.6%+16.8%+11.8%+37.2%+17.0%+12.5%
PROFITABILITY
  Gross Profit7729211,0411,4971,8402,128
  Gross Margin %18.4%18.8%19.0%19.9%20.9%21.5%
  EBITDA4925946809781,1971,386
  EBITDA Margin %11.7%12.1%12.4%13.0%13.6%14.0%
  D&A(162)(182)(203)(248)(275)(292)
  EBIT3304124777309221,094
  Interest Expense(72)(81)(92)(112)(100)(82)
  Pre-tax Income2583313856188221,012
  Income Tax (~25%)(67)(85)(98)(154)(206)(253)
Net Income191246287464616759
EPS (Diluted, GAAP)$7.35$9.46$11.04$17.77$23.69$29.19
  Diluted Shares (M)26.026.026.026.126.026.0

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow (USD $M)

USD $MFY24AFY25AFY26AFY27EFY28E
KEY BALANCE SHEET ITEMS
  Cash & Equivalents182212287415572
  Accounts Receivable + WIP6787848721,1921,400
  Total Current Assets9421,0981,2641,7362,092
  PP&E, Net1,1621,3181,4801,8041,999
Total Assets2,4522,7823,1104,3645,010
  Accounts Payable289334376514602
  Long-Term Debt1,4521,6181,7522,1021,852
Total Equity7128541,0221,4882,104
  Net Debt1,2701,4061,4651,6871,280
  Net Debt / EBITDA2.6x2.4x2.2x1.7x1.1x
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
  Cash From Operations (CFO)378454528786958
  Capital Expenditures (Capex)(194)(238)(274)(358)(398)
Free Cash Flow (FCF)184216254428560
  FCF Yield (on market cap)1.4%1.6%1.9%3.2%4.2%
  M&A / Acquisitions(12)(18)(302)
  Share Repurchases(78)(52)(64)

Financial Charts

Revenue ($M) & EBITDA Margin (%)
DY Share Price vs. 12-Month Price Target ($615)

Valuation Framework

P/E — FY27E (Current)
28.7x
$510 / $17.77E; premium to MTZ 14x, in line with PWR 29x
P/E — FY28E (at PT $615)
25.9x
Justified by BEAD 5-year earnings visibility; below GH comps
EV/EBITDA — FY27E
15.2x
EV $14.9B / $978M EBITDA; above MTZ, below PWR
EV/EBITDA — FY28E (at PT)
13.8x
Deleveraging path: Net Debt/EBITDA 1.1x FY28E vs. 1.7x FY27E
FCF Yield — FY28E
4.2%
$560M FCF; rising to $670M FY29E; no dividend, reinvesting in growth
EV / Revenue — FY27E
2.0x
Reasonable for high-growth infrastructure; below Quanta 2.6x

Peer Comparison — Specialty Infrastructure Contractors

CompanyTickerMkt CapRev GrowthEBITDA MgnEV/EBITDA FY27EP/E FY27ERating
Quanta ServicesPWR$42B+11%10.8%18.2x29xBUY
MasTecMTZ$15B+8%9.4%9.2x14xHOLD
MYR GroupMYRG$2.4B+6%5.8%7.8x13xHOLD
Construction PartnersROAD$3.8B+15%9.2%14.2x22xBUY
Dycom IndustriesDY$13.3B+37%13.0%15.2x28.7xBUY ★

12-Month Price Target Scenarios

▲ Bull Case
$750
+47% upside  |  Probability: 25%
BEAD Phase 1 awards exceed expectations; AT&T raises fiber target to 35M passings by 2027; NTI synergies hit $40M vs. $30M plan. FY27 EPS revises to $21+. FY28E EPS $28. Assign 26.8x on FY28E = $750.
— Base Case
$615
+20.5% upside + dividends  |  Probability: 50%
FY27 guidance midpoint $7.52B achieved. EBITDA margin 13.0%, EPS $17.77. BEAD Phase 1 awards provide FY28 visibility. Net leverage falls to 1.7x. PT = 25.9x FY28E EPS $23.69 = $615.
▼ Bear Case
$380
−25.5% downside  |  Probability: 25%
AT&T/Comcast capex reductions; BEAD administrative delays push spend to FY29+; labor cost inflation erodes margin to 11.5%. FY27 EPS ~$13. Multiple compresses to 20x on FY27E = $380.

Key Catalysts — Next 12 Months

Jun 2026
Q1 FY28 Earnings & FY28 Guidance
Street modeling $2.1B+ revenue; initial FY28 guidance of $9.0B+ would validate the 5-year BEAD thesis and likely drive multiple expansion toward 30x forward earnings.
Q3 2026
BEAD Phase 1 Contract Awards
First state-level BEAD contractor procurement cycles begin. Dycom's geographic footprint and AT&T partnership position it to win 35–45% of telco-side awards. $3B+ in incremental backlog expected from Phase 1 alone.
Q3–Q4 2026
AT&T MSA Volume Disclosure
AT&T's 5-year MSA extension through 2030 includes volume commitments worth ~$2.6B/year to DY. Public disclosure of commitment terms would provide multi-year revenue visibility and support premium valuation.
2026–2027
Comcast DOCSIS 4.0 Acceleration
Comcast's $15B network upgrade to symmetrical multi-gig service requires extensive OSP work. DY is primary contractor, with estimated $1.4B annual run-rate from Comcast by FY28E — up from $0.9B today.
Mid-2026
NTI 12-Month Synergy Review
Management's $30M synergy target at 12 months post-close. Early workforce scheduling optimization suggests $35–40M achievable. Any upside vs. target would drive a positive earnings revision.
Ongoing
T-Mobile FWA Small-Cell Expansion
T-Mobile's fixed wireless rollout in 5-metro DY pilot could grow to a $400M+/year contract, adding a third major wireless carrier to DY's customer mix and diversifying revenue beyond AT&T/Comcast concentration.

Risk Register

Telecom Capex Slowdown
AT&T or Comcast reducing capital budgets would directly cut DY revenue. AT&T has historically trimmed capex in economic downturns. A 20% capex reduction by AT&T alone would cost ~$500M in DY annual revenue.
Labor Shortage & Wage Inflation
The U.S. needs 300,000+ net new fiber technicians by 2028 to meet BEAD demand. Wage competition from Quanta, MasTec, and utilities could force DY to raise pay 10–15%, compressing gross margin by 100–200bps.
BEAD Program Administrative Delays
State bureaucracy, environmental permitting, and matching fund requirements could push BEAD Phase 1 deployments from 2026 into 2027–2028. Each 6-month delay costs ~$500M in DY revenue timing.
Customer Concentration (AT&T ~35%)
AT&T, Comcast, and Verizon represent ~65% of total revenue. Loss of any major customer or significant contract repricing represents a severe risk. Most MSA agreements include AT-WILL cancellation clauses with 30–90 days notice.
NTI Integration Execution Risk
$275M acquisition brings culture, systems, and personnel retention challenges. NTI's Southeast contracts must renew at expected rates. Integration failure could result in $30M+ in incremental costs and goodwill impairment risk on the ~$180M goodwill acquired.
Leverage & Interest Rate Sensitivity
Net debt ~$1.7B (1.7x FY27E EBITDA). ~40% of debt is variable rate. If the Fed keeps rates elevated through 2027, interest expense could reach $125M+ vs. our $112M estimate, reducing EPS by ~$0.50.
Competition from Quanta & MasTec
PWR and MTZ have recently entered telecom contracting. Combined telecom revenue ~$3B but lacking DY's AT&T/Comcast penetration depth and pure-play workforce. Near-term competitive impact limited; monitor over 24 months.
Weather & Seasonality
Q3 (Jul–Oct) is historically DY's softest quarter due to summer heat and hurricane season in key Southeast/Gulf Coast markets. A severe 2026 hurricane season could delay $200–400M of projects into FY28.

Market Sentiment & Positioning

Wall St. Consensus
BUY
14 Buy / 2 Hold / 0 Sell
TipRanks Smart Score
8 / 10
★ Outperform vs. market
Short Interest
3.2%
Declining from 6.4% (2025)
Institutional Own.
92%
Fidelity, Vanguard, BlackRock top 3
Insider Activity
NET BUY
CEO purchased $2.1M — Dec 2025
Options Skew
Bullish
Call/put 1.8x; Dec $550C active
Avg. Analyst PT
$592
Range: $520 – $720
12-Mo. Price Return
+41%
vs. S&P 500 +18% same period

Bottom Line: Structural Winner of America's Digital Infrastructure Decade

Dycom Industries occupies an irreplaceable position at the epicenter of the largest telecom infrastructure buildout in American history. The convergence of the $60B+ BEAD program, AT&T's 30M-passing fiber mandate, Comcast's DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade, and 5G small-cell densification creates a demand runway that dwarfs any prior cycle. Q1 FY27's record $1.965B revenue (+56%) and EPS $4.42 — a 63% beat vs. consensus — confirm that Dycom's workforce scale and customer relationships translate directly to earning power. Backlog at an all-time high of $11.9B (1.6x FY27E revenue) provides unmatched forward visibility for a contractor. We model FCF rising from $254M (FY26A) to $560M (FY28E) as revenue scales and margins expand on project density. At 28.7x FY27E EPS, the stock carries a premium to peers — but this is warranted by the federal program certainty and BEAD's multi-decade revenue lock-in. Price Target: $615 (BUY) — represents 25.9x FY28E EPS of $23.69. Overweight.

ⓘ This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All financial forecasts are estimates subject to material revision. Investors should conduct their own due diligence. | TipRanks Market Intelligence | May 31, 2026