52-Week Range
$39.70 – $133.97
Near 52-wk high
Q1 2026 Revenue
$301.7M
+48% YoY
Gross Margin (Q1)
65.2%
+1.9pts YoY
EV / 2026E Revenue
14.5x
vs NTRA ~21x
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy
15B · 1H · 0S
Cash & Investments
$1.2B
~2.5yr runway
12-Month Price History
Income Statement Forecast ($M) · E = Estimate
| FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||||
| Precision oncology | $468 | $600 | $752 | $906 | $1,087 | $1,261 |
| Development services | $96 | $139 | $230 | $441 | $573 | $700 |
| Total Revenue | $564 | $739 | $982 | $1,347 | $1,660 | $1,961 |
| YoY Growth | +26% | +31% | +33% | +37% | +23% | +18% |
| Profitability | ||||||
| Gross Profit | $337 | $449 | $633 | $890 | $1,129 | $1,373 |
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | 60.8% | 64.5% | 66.1% | 68.0% | 70.0% |
| R&D | $367 | $348 | $364 | $390 | $415 | $440 |
| Sales & Marketing | $372 | $424 | $580 | $700 | $747 | $745 |
| G&A | $162 | $120 | $125 | $175 | $182 | $188 |
| Operating Income | -$565 | -$444 | -$436 | -$375 | -$215 | +$0 |
| Operating Margin | -100% | -60% | -44% | -28% | -13% | ~0% |
| Net Income | -$479 | -$436 | -$416 | -$350 | -$185 | +$30 |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$4.28 | -$3.56 | -$3.32 | -$2.65 | -$1.35 | +$0.21 |
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Forecast ($M)
| FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance Sheet | |||||
| Cash & Investments | $840 | $1,202 | $890 | $730 | $800 |
| Total Assets | $1,486 | $2,014 | $2,100 | $2,050 | $2,100 |
| Total Debt | $1,336 | $1,682 | $1,700 | $1,700 | $1,500 |
| Total Equity | -$140 | -$99 | -$200 | -$250 | +$30 |
| Cash Flow | |||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -$240 | -$185 | -$270 | -$140 | +$60 |
| Capital Expenditures | -$35 | -$48 | -$60 | -$65 | -$70 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$275 | -$233 | -$330 | -$205 | ~-$10 |
| FCF Margin | -37% | -24% | -24% | -12% | ~0% |
Revenue Growth & Margin Trajectory
Revenue ($M, left)
Gross Margin % (right)
Operating Margin % (right)
Estimated
Valuation Framework
Base Case Price Target
$160
17.5x EV/2026E revenue · +23% upside
DCF Range (10yr, 12% WACC, 3% terminal)
$145–$175
Midpoint $160 · Revenue CAGR 18–37%, tapering · GM to 72%
| Metric | GH Current | GH @ PT $160 | NTRA (Peer) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $17.7B | $21.8B | $30.6B |
| Enterprise Value (est.) | ~$19.5B | ~$23.6B | ~$29.5B |
| EV / 2026E Revenue | 14.5x | 17.5x | ~21x |
| EV / 2027E Revenue | 11.7x | 14.2x | ~16x |
| Revenue Growth (2026E) | +37% | — | +28% |
| Gross Margin (2026E) | 66% | — | ~70% |
| Consensus PT | $131.73 | — | $258.10 |
GH trades at a meaningful discount to peer Natera on forward multiples despite faster near-term revenue growth. The discount reflects deeper losses and Shield execution risk but should compress as volumes scale and operating leverage materializes. Our PT implies GH re-rates to 17.5x EV/2026E — still below NTRA, appropriate given the higher risk profile.
12-Month Price Target Scenarios
Bull Case
$210
+62% upside
Shield volumes inflect sharply as commercial payer adoption accelerates. ADLT designation secured, lifting reimbursement to $900+. MCD Breakthrough Device fast-tracked. Revenue reaches $1.6B in FY2026E. Multiple re-rates to 22x on visible path to profitability.
Base Case
$160
+23% upside
Shield continues steady ramp. Medicare volumes grow 60%+ YoY. Commercial coverage expands to ~40% of plans. Revenue of $1.35B in FY2026E. Operating margin improves to -28%. Multiple holds at ~17.5x on improving fundamentals.
Bear Case
$85
-34% downside
ACS guidelines dampen physician adoption. Commercial payer coverage stalls. S&M spend fails to convert. Revenue growth decelerates to 20%. Capital raise required, diluting ~15%. Multiple compresses to 10x on margin concerns.
Key Catalysts — Next 12 Months
Jul 30, 2026
Q2 2026 Earnings
First full quarter post-Q1 reacceleration. Shield volume guidance and payer coverage update will be the primary focus. Operating margin trajectory vs. consensus will drive near-term price action. We model $340M revenue / -26% op margin. A beat + raise scenario could push the stock to $150+.
H2 2026
ADLT Designation Decision
If granted, Shield reimbursement could jump from ~$500 to $900+, materially improving unit economics and the gross margin trajectory. This is arguably the single biggest financial catalyst in the next 12 months — could add $15–25 to the stock on announcement.
2026–2027
Commercial Payer Coverage Milestones
Coverage is currently concentrated in Medicare. Each major commercial insurer (UnitedHealth, Aetna, BCBS) adding Shield to formulary unlocks millions of incremental eligible lives. Current commercial coverage estimated at ~25–30% of lives. Each win is a re-rating event.
2026
Shield MCD Data Readout / FDA Pathway
The multi-cancer detection version of Shield has Breakthrough Device designation. Any positive clinical data or FDA pre-submission feedback on an approval timeline expands the TAM narrative significantly. Multi-cancer detection is a $10B+ opportunity if validated.
Ongoing
NCCN Guideline Expansion & Oncology Volume
Guardant360 CDx companion diagnostic label expansions (breast, colorectal) and Guardant Reveal MRD adoption continue to compound the oncology base. Each approval broadens the biopharma partnership pipeline and provides a high-margin recurring revenue stream.
Risk Register
High
Payer Coverage Execution Risk
Shield's commercial ramp is predicated on broad payer coverage. The ACS guidelines categorize blood tests as a secondary screening option — below colonoscopy and stool tests — giving large commercial payers grounds to resist broad coverage. A slow rollout is the single biggest threat to the bull thesis and our primary monitoring point.
High
Cash Burn & Financing Risk
We model -$330M FCF in FY2026E and a cash balance declining to ~$890M. At current burn rates, GH has 2.5–3 years of runway. If Shield adoption is slower than expected, the company may need to raise capital by late 2027, creating dilution risk. The $1.7B debt load further constrains flexibility and should be monitored for covenant triggers.
Med
S&M Leverage Risk
S&M spend jumped 62% YoY in Q1 2026 to $169M. If this spending doesn't convert to proportional volume growth, the operating leverage story breaks down. Management must demonstrate S&M efficiency improvement by H2 2026. Revenue per S&M dollar is our key watchpoint at Q2 earnings.
Med
Competitive Response
Exact Sciences (EXAS), Grail, and Illumina-backed ventures are all pursuing liquid biopsy and multi-cancer detection. Natera's Signatera has strong MRD momentum. A better-funded competitor securing earlier commercial payer contracts could limit GH's first-mover advantage in a winner-take-most market.
Med
Negative Equity & Debt Covenant Risk
Total stockholders' equity is negative (-$99M FY2025). While near-term liquidity is fine (current ratio 4.8x), if lenders impose covenants triggered by sustained negative equity, GH could face restrictive conditions on its $1.7B debt stack, limiting strategic flexibility.
Low
CMS Reimbursement Policy Changes
Medicare coverage is established, but CMS could revisit reimbursement rates in future Physician Fee Schedule updates. Any downward revision to the ~$500 Medicare rate would directly compress economics on the largest current payer segment. We view this as a tail risk, not a base case.
Sentiment & Technical Indicators
Analyst Consensus
Strong Buy
15B · 1H · 0S
Best Analysts Only
Strong Buy
7B · 0H · 0S · PT $131
TipRanks SmartScore
9 / 10
Outperform tier
Hedge Fund Signal
Net Sell
Score: 0.08 — light HF positioning
Insider Activity
Net Sell
Multiple Form 144s filed May '26
News Sentiment
Bullish
Score: 0.89 / 1.0
| Technical Indicator | Value | Signal | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) — Weekly | 72.4 | Sell | Overbought — momentum stretched, pullback risk near-term |
| Stochastics %K (9) | 90.3 | Sell | Extremely overbought — caution on new entries |
| MACD (12,26,9) | 6.7 | Sell | Momentum fading, signal line crossover risk |
| All MAs (5–200, SMA + EMA) | All above | Strong Buy | Price above all moving averages — trend intact |
| Classic Pivot R1 / R2 | $129 / $139 | Neutral | At R1 resistance — needs to break $139 to retest highs |
| Classic Support S1 | $101.8 | Buy Zone | Key support on any pullback — preferred entry level |
| Williams %R (14) | -7.2 | Sell | Near -0 overbought boundary |
Technical setup is constructive on the trend (price above all MAs) but momentum indicators are stretched after +208% in 12 months. The stock is testing its R1 pivot at ~$129 and sitting near the 52-week high of $133.97. A pullback to the $101–$112 support zone would represent a more attractive entry for new positions. We would be aggressive buyers on any weakness below $110.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Mkt Cap | Consensus | Analyst PT | PT Upside | 1-Year Return | SmartScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardant HealthGH | $17.7B | Strong Buy | $131.73 | +1.6% | +208% | 9 |
| NateraNTRA | $30.6B | Strong Buy | $258.10 | +15.5% | +42% | 7 |
| RevvityRVTY | $11.3B | Buy | $104.75 | +0.2% | +16% | 7 |
| QiagenQGEN | $7.6B | Buy | $40.74 | +11.3% | -23% | 9 |
| RadNetRDNT | $4.4B | Strong Buy | $85.00 | +53% | -3% | 4 |
Analyst Bottom Line
Summary & Key Conviction Points
The core debate on GH comes down to one question: is Shield a $1B+ revenue product or a niche diagnostics tool? We believe it's the former, and Q1 2026 data — 48% revenue growth, improving gross margins, compressing operating losses — is the early proof. The stock has re-rated +208% in a year, so the easy money is behind us, but the ADLT designation decision and commercial payer coverage milestones are genuinely underappreciated catalysts not yet fully in the Street consensus PT of $131.
GH needs to reach roughly $1.8B in revenue at ~70% gross margins to generate meaningful EBITDA — at the current growth trajectory, that happens in FY2027–FY2028. At $130, you're paying 14.5x FY2026E revenue for 37% top-line growth on a product with a defensible first-mover regulatory moat. Versus Natera at 21x for 28% growth, that remains a favorable setup. We rate GH a BUY with a $160 price target. Preferred entry: $110–$115 on any near-term technical pullback given overbought momentum indicators. Next major catalyst: July 30 Q2 earnings.
GH needs to reach roughly $1.8B in revenue at ~70% gross margins to generate meaningful EBITDA — at the current growth trajectory, that happens in FY2027–FY2028. At $130, you're paying 14.5x FY2026E revenue for 37% top-line growth on a product with a defensible first-mover regulatory moat. Versus Natera at 21x for 28% growth, that remains a favorable setup. We rate GH a BUY with a $160 price target. Preferred entry: $110–$115 on any near-term technical pullback given overbought momentum indicators. Next major catalyst: July 30 Q2 earnings.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is generatedusing publicly available data from SEC filings (EDGAR), TipRanks, and the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Financial forecasts are model estimates subject to material uncertainty. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This information is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell GH or any other security. · Report generated May 30, 2026.