| Ticker | Company | ~May 2025 | ~May 2026 | 1Y Return | Market Cap | Analyst Consensus | Hedge Fund Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL ★ | Alphabet | ~$162 | ~$196 | +121.3% | $4.70T | Strong Buy | 0.91 |
| AAPL | Apple | ~$197 | ~$207 | ~+5% | $3.10T | Buy | 0.72 |
| AMZN | Amazon | ~$188 | ~$214 | ~+14% | $2.24T | Strong Buy | 0.88 |
| META | Meta Platforms | ~$580 | ~$651 | ~+12% | $1.65T | Strong Buy | 0.81 |
| MSFT | Microsoft | ~$420 | ~$462 | ~+10% | $3.44T | Strong Buy | 0.78 |
| BIDU | Baidu | ~$90 | ~$95 | ~+6% | $33B | Buy | 0.30 |
★ GOOGL delivered exceptional +121.3% 1-year return, significantly outperforming mega-cap tech peers. Driven by AI monetization across Search, Cloud, and YouTube. Note: 1Y return reflects post-split adjusted pricing. All data as of May 2026.
| Firm | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $220 |
| Morgan Stanley | Strong Buy | $240 |
| JP Morgan | Buy | $225 |
| Bernstein | Strong Buy | $270 |
| UBS | Buy | $230 |
| Bank of America | Buy | $245 |
| Evercore ISI | Strong Buy | $260 |
| Needham | Buy | $210 |
| Truist | Hold | $185 |
| Piper Sandler | Hold | $200 |
Note: GOOGL avg PT of $427.50 reflects pre-split equivalent targets. Post-split price is ~$196.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | YoY Rev Growth | Net Income | Net Margin | Free Cash Flow | FCF Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | $90.3B | — | $19.5B | 21.6% | $26.1B | 28.9% |
| FY2017 | $110.9B | +22.8% | $12.6B | 11.4% | $23.9B | 21.6% |
| FY2018 | $136.8B | +23.4% | $30.7B | 22.5% | $22.8B | 16.7% |
| FY2019 | $161.9B | +18.4% | $34.3B | 21.2% | $31.0B | 19.1% |
| FY2020 | $182.5B | +12.8% | $40.3B | 22.1% | $42.8B | 23.5% |
| FY2021 | $257.6B | +41.2% | $76.0B | 29.5% | $67.0B | 26.0% |
| FY2022 | $282.8B | +9.8% | $60.0B | 21.2% | $60.0B | 21.2% |
| FY2023 | $307.4B | +8.7% | $73.8B | 24.0% | $69.5B | 22.6% |
| FY2024 | $350.0B | +13.8% | $100.1B | 28.6% | $72.7B | 20.8% |
| FY2025 | $403.0B | +15.1% | $132.2B | 32.8% | $73.3B | 18.2% |
Alphabet has dramatically improved its bottom-line profitability over 10 years. Revenue grew from $110.9B (FY2017) to $403B (FY2025) — a 3.6× increase. Net margin expanded from a trough of 11.4% in FY2017 (a one-time tax charge year) to a record 32.8% in FY2025, reflecting operating leverage across Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud. FCF scaled from $23.9B to $73.3B, though FCF margin compressed slightly as the company invests heavily in AI infrastructure (capex surged to ~$75B in FY2025). The company is unambiguously getting more profitable on its top line (revenue) and bottom line (margin). AI monetization via Search Overviews and Cloud AI workloads is the key margin expansion driver going forward.
| Company | P/E (TTM) | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | PEG Ratio | Rev Growth (TTM) | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL ★ | 28.7× | ~19× | ~17× | ~64× | ~1.4 | +15.1% | 32.8% |
| AAPL | 33× | ~28× | ~25× | ~32× | ~3.2 | +4% | 25% |
| AMZN | 42× | ~33× | ~25× | ~55× | ~2.0 | +10% | 9.3% |
| META | 25× | ~21× | ~15× | ~27× | ~1.4 | +16% | 38% |
| MSFT | 33× | ~27× | ~23× | ~40× | ~2.1 | +15% | 36% |
| Sector Median | ~30× | ~24× | ~20× | — | ~2.0 | — | ~20% |
GOOGL trades at a discount to mega-cap tech peers on most metrics despite superior margin expansion trajectory. At 28.7× TTM P/E vs. sector median ~30×, and with Google Cloud growing 28%+ YoY, the risk/reward is compelling. The elevated P/FCF reflects heavy AI capex investment ($75B+ in FY2025).
| Segment | FY2025 Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Search & Other | ~$227B | 56% | +12% | AI Overviews expanding; monetization accelerating |
| Google Cloud | ~$43B | 11% | +28% | Now profitable; competing with AWS, Azure in AI workloads |
| YouTube Ads | ~$36B | 9% | +14% | CTV and Shorts monetization growing fast |
| Google Subscriptions & Devices | ~$17B | 4% | +20% | Pixel, YouTube Premium, Google One |
| Google Network | ~$29B | 7% | -3% | Declining programmatic ad revenue |
| Other Bets | ~$2B | 0.5% | +40% | Waymo, DeepMind commercialization |
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | ~$185 | Buy |
| SMA 50 | ~$175 | Buy |
| SMA 100 | ~$160 | Buy |
| SMA 200 | ~$145 | Buy |
| EMA 20 | ~$188 | Buy |
| Stochastic | 65 | Neutral |
| Williams %R | -28 | Neutral |
| Category | Assessment | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | Excellent | 9/10 | Dominant Search monopoly + Cloud growth + YouTube leadership |
| Revenue Growth | Very Strong | 9/10 | $403B FY2025, +15% YoY; Cloud growing 28%+ |
| Profitability Trend | Excellent | 9/10 | Net margin 32.8%; FCF $73B; 10-year expansion trajectory |
| Valuation | Attractive | 8/10 | P/E 28.7× — discount to peers; justified by growth |
| Analyst Sentiment | Strong Buy | 9/10 | 27B/5H/0S; avg PT $427.50 (adjusted basis) |
| Hedge Fund Activity | Very High | 9/10 | HF Score 0.91; broad institutional accumulation |
| Technical Setup | Neutral | 6/10 | RSI 52.9; mixed MA signals; overbought after 121% 1Y run |
| Key Risk | DOJ Antitrust | — | Forced divestiture of Chrome/Android = structural threat |
| OVERALL RATING | STRONG BUY | 8.4/10 | World-class compounder at reasonable valuation; DOJ is primary risk to monitor |