| Ticker | Company | ~May 2025 | ~May 2026 | 1Y Return | Market Cap | Analyst Consensus | HF Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY ★ | Eli Lilly | ~$853 | ~$880 | +52.9% | $1.06T | Strong Buy | 0.67 |
| ABBV | AbbVie | ~$180 | ~$218 | +20.8% | $386B | Strong Buy | 1.00 |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | ~$152 | ~$225 | +48.0% | $556B | Buy | 0.26 |
| NVS | Novartis | ~$108 | ~$115 | ~+7% | $243B | Buy | 0.40 |
| AZN | AstraZeneca | ~$84 | ~$93 | ~+11% | $289B | Buy | 0.35 |
| MRK | Merck | ~$74 | ~$119 | +60.1% | $297B | Buy | 0.76 |
★ LLY delivered +52.9% 1-year return, outperforming most large-cap pharma except MRK. LLY's weight-loss (GLP-1) franchise (Mounjaro/Zepbound) continues to drive a structural re-rating of the company to a high-growth pharma.
| Firm | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $1,100 |
| Morgan Stanley | Strong Buy | $1,350 |
| JP Morgan | Strong Buy | $1,400 |
| Leerink Partners | Strong Buy | $1,500 |
| BMO Capital | Buy | $1,200 |
| Barclays | Buy | $1,150 |
| UBS | Strong Buy | $1,300 |
| Wells Fargo | Buy | $1,000 |
| HSBC | Hold | $800 |
| Bernstein | Sell | $650 |
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | YoY Growth | Net Income | Net Margin | Free Cash Flow | FCF Margin | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | $21.2B | — | $2.7B | 12.8% | $3.8B | 17.9% | Baseline |
| FY2017 | $20.0B | -5.7% | -$0.2B | -1.0% | $3.5B | 17.5% | Patent cliff; tax reform charge |
| FY2018 | $21.5B | +7.5% | $3.2B | 14.9% | $4.5B | 20.9% | Trulicity growth |
| FY2019 | $22.3B | +3.7% | $8.3B | 37.2% | $5.2B | 23.3% | Diabetes portfolio strength |
| FY2020 | $24.5B | +9.9% | $6.2B | 25.3% | $6.1B | 24.9% | COVID antibody program |
| FY2021 | $28.3B | +15.5% | $5.6B | 19.8% | $6.4B | 22.6% | Mounjaro trials |
| FY2022 | $28.5B | +0.7% | $6.2B | 21.8% | $7.2B | 25.3% | Mounjaro FDA approved (T2D) |
| FY2023 | $34.1B | +19.6% | $5.2B | 15.2% | -$3.15B | neg | Zepbound launch; heavy capex buildout |
| FY2024 | $45.0B | +32.1% | $10.6B | 23.6% | $3.6B | 8.0% | GLP-1 hypergrowth; supply constraints |
| FY2025 | $65.2B | +44.9% | $20.6B | 31.7% | $9.0B | 13.8% | Mounjaro/Zepbound dominance |
LLY's financial profile has transformed radically. Revenue grew from $20B (FY2017) to $65.2B (FY2025) — a 3.3× increase, with the steepest acceleration in FY2024–2025 driven by Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity). Net margin expanded from a loss year (-1%) to a record 31.7% in FY2025. FCF is the one caveat: FCF turned negative (-$3.15B) in FY2023 due to aggressive manufacturing capex buildout (LLY announced $18B in new manufacturing capacity). FCF recovered to $9B in FY2025, but the FCF margin (13.8%) still significantly lags the net margin (31.7%), reflecting ongoing capex intensity. The business is getting dramatically more profitable on top and bottom line, but free cash flow conversion will remain subdued until manufacturing capex normalizes (~2027–2028).
| Company | P/E (TTM) | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Rev Growth (TTM) | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY ★ | 39.1× | ~27× | ~32× | ~117× | +44.9% | 31.7% |
| ABBV | 17× | ~15× | ~14× | ~18× | +5% | 20% |
| NVO (Novo Nordisk) | ~28× | ~22× | ~26× | ~35× | +26% | 32% |
| JNJ | ~20× | ~15× | ~13× | ~22× | +4% | 18% |
| AZN | ~38× | ~25× | ~22× | ~30× | +18% | 18% |
| Pharma Sector Median | ~20× | ~17× | ~15× | — | — | ~18% |
LLY commands a significant premium to pharma peers, justified by its 40%+ revenue growth rate. P/FCF of 117× looks stretched but reflects temporary capex headwinds. Closest peer is NVO (Ozempic/Wegovy); LLY trades at premium due to superior US GLP-1 market share.
| Product | Indication | FY2025 Revenue | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mounjaro (tirzepatide) | Type 2 Diabetes | ~$14B | +95% | Dominant GLP-1/GIP market; weekly injection |
| Zepbound (tirzepatide) | Obesity | ~$9B | New launch | Fastest drug launch in history by revenue |
| Trulicity (dulaglutide) | Type 2 Diabetes | ~$4.5B | -30% | Declining as Mounjaro cannibalizes |
| Verzenio (abemaciclib) | Breast Cancer | ~$4.5B | +25% | Adjuvant early breast cancer expanding |
| Taltz (ixekizumab) | Psoriasis/PsA | ~$2.1B | +10% | Stable immunology franchise |
| Kisunla (donanemab) | Alzheimer's | ~$1.0B | New launch | First amyloid-clearing AD treatment from LLY |
| Other (Jardiance, Cyramza...) | Various | ~$6B | Flat | Maturing portfolio |
⚠️ RSI at 69.6 approaching overbought territory. All 12 MAs are bullish, but oscillators suggest short-term consolidation possible before next leg up.
| Category | Assessment | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | Excellent | 9/10 | Generational GLP-1 franchise; Alzheimer's optionality; 140-year brand |
| Revenue Growth | Exceptional | 10/10 | $65.2B FY2025, +45% YoY — fastest growth of any mega-cap pharma |
| Profitability Trend | Good | 8/10 | Net margin 31.7% (record); FCF margin lagging at 13.8% due to capex |
| Valuation | Elevated | 6/10 | 39× P/E; 117× P/FCF — premium warranted but leaves no room for error |
| Analyst Sentiment | Strong Buy | 9/10 | 20B/2H/1S; avg PT $1,265 (+44% upside) |
| Hedge Fund Activity | High | 8/10 | HF Score 0.67; significant institutional accumulation |
| Technical Setup | Buy | 7/10 | All 12 MAs bullish; RSI 69.6 (near overbought); oscillators cautionary |
| Key Risk | IRA Pricing | — | Medicare drug price negotiation could reduce tirzepatide revenue by 20–40% |
| OVERALL RATING | STRONG BUY | 8.3/10 | Generational compounder with GLP-1 moat; watch IRA negotiation and FCF conversion trajectory |