| Ticker | Company | ~May 2025 | ~May 2026 | 1Y Return | Market Cap | Consensus | HF Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDB ★ | MongoDB | ~$218 | ~$225 | +77.7% | $26B | Strong Buy | 0.19 |
| SNOW | Snowflake | ~$138 | ~$165 | ~+20% | $55B | Buy | 0.35 |
| ESTC | Elastic NV | ~$87 | ~$94 | ~+8% | $9B | Buy | 0.22 |
| DOCN | DigitalOcean | ~$32 | ~$34 | ~+6% | $3B | Hold | 0.15 |
★ MDB's +77.7% 1-year return significantly outperformed cloud data peers. The re-rating reflects: (1) FCF turning positive for the first time, (2) AI workload tailwind for document database use cases, and (3) Atlas (cloud) growing 30%+ with improving economics.
| Firm | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $350 |
| Citi | Strong Buy | $450 |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $380 |
| JP Morgan | Buy | $400 |
| Wedbush | Strong Buy | $500 |
| Jefferies | Strong Buy | $450 |
| Raymond James | Buy | $375 |
| Piper Sandler | Hold | $200 |
| Stifel | Buy | $360 |
| UBS | Hold | $195 |
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | YoY Growth | GAAP Net Income | GAAP Net Margin | Free Cash Flow | Non-GAAP EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 (Jan'17) | $101M | — | -$86M | -85% | -$40M | N/M |
| FY2018 | $168M | +66% | -$127M | -76% | -$62M | N/M |
| FY2019 | $272M | +62% | -$199M | -73% | -$89M | N/M |
| FY2020 | $422M | +55% | -$267M | -63% | -$57M | N/M |
| FY2021 | $590M | +40% | -$268M | -45% | -$62M | N/M |
| FY2022 | $873M | +48% | -$371M | -42% | -$5M | -$0.09 |
| FY2023 | $1.28B | +47% | -$458M | -36% | $90M | $1.10 |
| FY2024 | $1.68B | +31% | -$316M | -19% | $254M | $2.03 |
| FY2025 | $2.01B | +20% | -$148M | -7.4% | $403M | $2.98 |
| FY2026 (Jan'26) | $2.46B | +22.4% | -$71M | -2.9% | $500M+ | $4.12 |
MDB grew revenue 24× over 9 years ($101M → $2.46B). GAAP net losses are narrowing dramatically (from -85% net margin to -2.9%), and FCF turned solidly positive ($500M+ in FY2026). Non-GAAP EPS went from negative to $4.12 in FY2026 — a meaningful profitability signal on an operational basis. The GAAP losses are driven by stock-based compensation (~$300–400M/year) and amortization, not operating cash burn. MDB is becoming dramatically more profitable on a cash flow basis; GAAP profitability is within 1–2 years if stock comp. growth decelerates. The critical watch item: FCF margin is currently ~20% and improving; if Atlas (cloud) revenue mix continues growing to 70%+, FCF margins can reach 30%+ by FY2028–2029.
| Company | EV/Revenue | EV/NTM Rev | P/FCF | Rev Growth (TTM) | FCF Margin | GAAP Profitability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDB ★ | ~11× | ~9× | ~52× | +22.4% | ~20% | ❌ Not yet (GAAP) |
| SNOW | ~16× | ~13× | ~75× | +29% | ~10% | ❌ Not yet |
| ESTC | ~6× | ~5× | ~25× | +18% | ~12% | ❌ Not yet |
| Cloud Software Median | ~10× | ~8× | ~40× | — | ~15% | — |
MDB trades at a slight premium to cloud software peers on EV/Revenue (11× vs. sector ~10×), reflecting its dominant document database position and AI workload tailwind. The 77% analyst PT upside implies the market is not fully pricing in the long-term FCF opportunity (MDB could generate $1.5–2B+ FCF by FY2030 at scale).
| Revenue Stream | FY2026 Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas (Cloud) | ~$1.78B | 72% | +31% | Consumption-based cloud database; tied to customer workload growth; AI workloads driving adoption |
| Enterprise Advanced (EA) | ~$612M | 25% | +5% | On-prem/self-managed subscriptions; slower growth but high retention |
| Other (professional services) | ~$68M | 3% | flat | Training, implementation services |
| Total | $2.46B | 100% | +22.4% | Atlas mix expanding from 66% (FY2024) to 72% (FY2026) |
Atlas is the engine: consumption-based model means revenue scales with customer success. 45,000+ Atlas customers; NRR (Net Revenue Retention) >110%. AI agents and LLM workloads are being built natively on MongoDB's flexible document model.
| Category | Assessment | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Quality | Excellent | 9/10 | World's most popular document database; developer-first moat; AI-native platform |
| Revenue Growth | Very Strong | 9/10 | $2.46B FY2026 (+22.4%); Atlas +31%; 10-year revenue 24× |
| Profitability Trend | Improving Fast | 8/10 | FCF $500M+; GAAP losses narrowing (-2.9% net margin); Non-GAAP EPS $4.12 |
| Valuation | Elevated | 6/10 | 11× EV/Revenue; 52× P/FCF — priced for growth, not current earnings |
| Analyst Sentiment | Strong Buy | 9/10 | 23B/4H/0S; avg PT $397.65 (+77% upside) |
| Hedge Fund Activity | Low-Moderate | 5/10 | HF Score 0.19 — institutional not as concentrated as mega-caps |
| Technical Setup | Strong Buy | 9/10 | All 12 MAs Buy; RSI 63.3; clean strong uptrend |
| Key Risk | Competition | — | Hyperscaler database competition; consumption volatility risk |
| OVERALL RATING | STRONG BUY | 8.1/10 | AI-native database platform with compounding Atlas growth; FCF inflection story; valuation requires growth execution |