Business Overview
Company Profile
Moog is a leading designer and manufacturer of precision motion control products and systems for demanding applications in aerospace, defense, industrial, and medical markets. Founded in 1951, Moog's flight control actuation systems are on virtually every military and commercial aircraft in the Western world.
Segments:
Defense (~50% of revenue) Space (growing ~15%) Commercial Aerospace (~20%) Industrial (~15%)
Moog holds sole-source positions on key defense platforms including the F-35 (flight control), Patriot/THAAD (guided munitions), and various satellite attitude control systems. Defense backlog provides exceptional revenue visibility.
Segments:
Defense (~50% of revenue) Space (growing ~15%) Commercial Aerospace (~20%) Industrial (~15%)
Moog holds sole-source positions on key defense platforms including the F-35 (flight control), Patriot/THAAD (guided munitions), and various satellite attitude control systems. Defense backlog provides exceptional revenue visibility.
Investment Thesis
1. Defense upcycle: Escalating global defense budgets post-Ukraine, Taiwan strait tensions, and NATO 2%+ GDP commitments are driving multi-year demand growth for Moog's precision actuation systems.
2. Guided munitions surge: JDAM-ER, GBU-53 Stormbreaker, and precision artillery are being replenished at historically high rates. Moog supplies actuators for guidance systems — sole-source positions.
3. Space systems growth: Commercial satellite constellations (SpaceX Starlink, Amazon Kuiper) and government space programs driving double-digit space segment growth.
4. FY2025 margin recovery: EBITDA margins expanded from 11.7% (FY2024) to 12.7% (FY2025). Targeting 14%+ as mix shifts toward higher-margin defense programs.
5. International defense expansion: European nations accelerating domestic defense procurement — Moog's European footprint (Italy, Germany, UK) positions it to capture allied spending.
2. Guided munitions surge: JDAM-ER, GBU-53 Stormbreaker, and precision artillery are being replenished at historically high rates. Moog supplies actuators for guidance systems — sole-source positions.
3. Space systems growth: Commercial satellite constellations (SpaceX Starlink, Amazon Kuiper) and government space programs driving double-digit space segment growth.
4. FY2025 margin recovery: EBITDA margins expanded from 11.7% (FY2024) to 12.7% (FY2025). Targeting 14%+ as mix shifts toward higher-margin defense programs.
5. International defense expansion: European nations accelerating domestic defense procurement — Moog's European footprint (Italy, Germany, UK) positions it to capture allied spending.
Financial Summary (FY ends September)
| Metric | FY2021A | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $2.85 | $3.04 | $3.32 | $3.61 | $3.86 | $4.15 | $4.50 |
| Gross Margin | 24.5% | 24.6% | 24.4% | 27.6% | 27.4% | 28.5% | 30.0% |
| Op. Margin | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 13.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.5% |
| Net Income ($M) | $157 | $155 | $171 | $207 | $235 | $280 | $340 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.87 | $4.83 | $5.34 | $6.40 | $7.33 | $8.75 | $10.50 |
| FCF ($M) | $164 | $107 | -$37 | $46 | $128 | $250 | $350 |
| Net Debt ($M) | $804 | $736 | $794 | $812 | $884 | $750 | $550 |
| EPS Growth | — | -1% | +11% | +20% | +15% | +19% | +20% |
* FY2023 FCF negative on working capital investment for defense ramp. Strong FCF recovery trajectory. FY2026-27E estimates.
12-Month Price History
Revenue & EPS Trend (FY2021–FY2027E)
Peer Comparison — Defense / Aerospace Actuation
| Company | Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | EBITDA Mgn | Rev Growth | D/E | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moog Inc. (Class A) | MOG.A | $11.4B | 40.1× | 12.7% | +7.0% | 0.48 | Buy |
| Woodward | WWD | $20.9B | 40.7× | 19.1% | +7.3% | 0.28 | Strong Buy |
| Curtiss-Wright | CW | ~$12B | ~28× | ~21% | +10% | ~0.6 | Buy |
| TransDigm Group | TDG | ~$70B | ~45× | ~45% | +8% | high | Buy |
| Heico Corp. | HEI | ~$30B | ~60× | ~25% | +12% | ~0.4 | Buy |
Moog trades at a discount to TDG/HEI on EBITDA margins — reflects lower aftermarket content mix vs. pure aftermarket players. Defense content provides superior backlog visibility.
Price Target Scenarios
🚀 Bull Case
$420
+17% upside
Defense spending accelerates; guided munitions replenishment orders surge. Space segment doubles to 25%+ of revenue. EBITDA margins reach 15%+. EPS surpasses $12 by FY2027. 35× premium aerospace/defense multiple on $12 EPS.
📊 Base Case
$370
+3% upside
Steady 7-8% revenue growth from defense backlog drawdown. EBITDA margins improving toward 14%. EPS of $8.75-$10.50 in FY2026-27. ~35× on $10.50E FY2027 EPS. FCF recovery drives buyback acceleration. Stock has already priced much of the upside.
⚠️ Bear Case
$240
-33% downside
Defense budget sequestration or program cuts reduce guided munition orders. Space segment contracts below plan. Margin expansion stalls at 11-12%. EPS plateaus at $7-8. Multiple compresses to 30× on decelerating growth. FCF disappoints.
Key Catalysts
Q3 FY2026 Earnings (Jul 24, 2026)
Defense segment backlog and bookings update critical. Any guidance raise for full-year FY2026 on defense demand surge is the primary catalyst.
Guided Munitions Replenishment
Global munitions inventory depletion post-Ukraine driving emergency procurement programs. Moog's sole-source positions on precision guidance actuators create a sustained demand cycle.
Space Systems Bookings
Satellite constellation programs (LEO/GEO) continue booking attitude control and propulsion systems. Growth in commercial space drives highest-margin segment expansion.
European Defense Contracts
NATO member nations rapidly building domestic defense capacity. Moog's European facilities (Germany, Italy, UK) are positioned to capture allied country procurement.
Key Risks
Stock Above Consensus PT
At $360, MOG.A is already ~3% above the $350 analyst consensus target. Limited near-term analyst upside creates a valuation ceiling unless EPS estimates rise materially.
Defense Budget Risk
Any US defense budget sequestration, continuing resolutions, or program cancellations could delay Moog orders and compress the backlog revenue conversion rate.
Margin Trajectory
EBITDA margins at 12.7% remain low relative to aerospace peers (TransDigm 45%, Heico 25%, Woodward 19%). Continued program mix with lower-margin cost-plus defense contracts limits margin upside.
FCF Conversion
FCF has been volatile due to working capital builds on new defense programs. Net debt of $884M rising — buyback capacity more limited than peers.
Technical Analysis
Summary Signal
OverallBuy (16B/0N/6S)
Moving AveragesStrong Buy (12B/0S)
OscillatorsSell (overbought)
RSI (14)75.2 — Overbought
Williams %R-2.9 — Extreme overbought
ADX (14)17.7 — Weak trend
ATR (14)$11.50 / day
Key Levels
Current Price$359.97
5-Day MA$344.33 (support)
50-Day MA$309.83 (strong support)
200-Day MA$260.89 (deep support)
Resistance R1$363.90 (classic)
Support S1$345.11
52W High$362 (near ATH)
⚡ Technical Note: MOG.A is testing 52W highs at $362, up 94% in 12 months. RSI at 75.2 and Williams %R at -2.9 signal extreme overbought near-term. All MAs in strong bull formation. A short-term pullback toward $330-340 (5-10%) would create a better entry. Long-term trend remains strongly bullish.
Market Sentiment
Analyst Consensus
Buy
1 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell
Avg Price Target
$350.00
Stock above consensus PT
Hedge Fund Score
0.24 — Sell
HF caution at elevated price
SmartScore
7 / 10
Above average
Short Interest
~2.5%
Low
Insider Activity
Neutral
Limited recent activity
1-Year Return
+94.3%
Strong momentum
Coverage
Limited
Only 1 analyst covering
📊 Bottom Line
Moog is a defense and aerospace precision motion specialist with irreplaceable sole-source content on critical military platforms. The multi-year defense spending upcycle, guided munitions replenishment, and space systems growth create a compelling earnings acceleration story — EPS growing from $7.33 (FY2025) toward $10.50 (FY2027E). However, at $360 (above the $350 analyst consensus PT) and RSI at 75, MOG.A is technically overbought near-term. The HF Score of 0.24 signals institutional caution at current levels. Best entry point: $325-340 on pullback. Price Target: $370 (+3% near-term, $420 on 12-month horizon). Rating: Buy (better on dips).