Executive View
The U.S. economy enters H2 2026 in a complex position: labor is resilient, equities are at record highs, and AI-led capex is booming — yet real household purchasing power is eroding under a fresh energy-driven inflation shock and new Fed leadership that is more hawkish than its predecessor.
The base case is a soft-ish landing. Real GDP should run around 1.5%–2.5% SAAR over the next four quarters, with Q2 2026 likely the strongest quarter (Atlanta Fed GDPNow: 3.7% as of May 8) and growth cooling through H2. The May 2026 jobs report showed 115,000 non-farm payrolls (vs. 62k estimate) and 4.3% unemployment — a labor market that is softening gradually, not cracking.
The S&P 500 hit a record 7,600 in late May (+5.2% in May alone, ninth consecutive weekly gain) driven by Nvidia's AI chip announcement and Q1 earnings growth of 29%. Market exuberance and macro reality are currently diverging — something to monitor carefully.
Base-Case GDP Forecast
Q2 2026 is tracking strongly — Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.7% as of May 8 suggests upside versus our 2.5% base case. The gap reflects potential for inventory/trade noise to fade. Manufacturing, AI capex, and a healthy jobs market support near-term growth, while consumer real-income pressure and the oil shock should cool growth in H2.
| Quarter | Real GDP, SAAR | Macro Characterization | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.5%–3.7% | Strong — capex, manufacturing, inventories | AI capex boom, factory orders +12.8% MoM (Apr) |
| Q3 2026 | ~1.8% | Deceleration — oil shock bites consumer | Real income pressure, softer hiring, housing drag |
| Q4 2026 | ~1.5% | Below-trend — Fed constraint | Hawkish Warsh Fed, inflation sticky, credit tightening |
| Q1 2027 | ~1.7% | Stabilization | Real-income recovery if energy shock fades; first cut possible |
Probability-Weighted Scenarios
Soft-ish Landing
Growth slows but stays positive. Unemployment drifts to ~4.6%. Inflation above target. Fed holds until Q1 2027.
AI-Led Resilience
AI/capex, manufacturing, and energy-price moderation keep GDP 2.5%–3.0% throughout.
Stagflation / Hard Landing
Oil stays above $105, real incomes fall, consumer cracks. Fed can't ease. Growth near 0%.
Last 8 Quarters: What the Trend Is Telling Us
Eight quarters of data tell a clear story: the economy has shifted from broad post-pandemic resilience to a late-cycle, inflation-constrained regime. The consumer has decelerated sharply; housing is persistently weak; inflation has re-accelerated; and a narrower set of capex-driven growth engines now carries most of the load.
| Quarter | Real GDP | Real PCE | Nonres. Inv. | Res. Inv. | Core PCE | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Q24 | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | -2.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% |
| 3Q24 | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | -4.8% | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| 4Q24 | 1.9% | 3.9% | -3.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% |
| 1Q25 | -0.6% | 0.6% | 9.5% | -1.0% | 3.3% | 4.2% |
| 2Q25 | 3.8% | 2.5% | 7.3% | -5.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% |
| 3Q25 | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | -7.1% | 2.9% | 4.4% |
| 4Q25 | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | -1.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% |
| 1Q26 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 10.1% | -6.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
Core Macro Thesis
The U.S. economy is being pulled in two directions. The positive side: AI-led business investment, manufacturing, industrial production, and private domestic demand are providing structural support, and equities are at record highs. The negative side: a Middle East oil shock pushing Brent to $106/b, new hawkish Fed leadership under Chairman Warsh, weak consumer confidence (Michigan sentiment 48.2 in May), a 2.6% personal saving rate, and persistent housing unaffordability.
Consumer Spending: Resilient Nominally, Weakening in Real Terms
Nominal spending remains positive but real momentum is deteriorating. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 48.2 in May 2026 (vs. 49.8 prior, 49.5 estimate) — a level consistent with household pessimism about purchasing power. The personal saving rate remains near historic lows at 2.6%, and real PCE decelerated to 1.4% SAAR in Q1 2026 from nearly 4.0% in mid-2024.
| Indicator | Current Signal | Macro Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Real PCE (Q1 2026) | +1.4% SAAR | Positive but well below 2024 pace; inflation is eroding real gains |
| Michigan Sentiment (May) | 48.2 — deeply pessimistic | Sub-50 readings consistent with consumer caution and spending restraint |
| Personal Saving Rate | 2.6% | Near cycle low; limited cushion against oil/energy shock |
| ISM Services Prices | 70.7 — very hot | Service-sector inflation remains sticky; pricing power intact |
| Household debt | Rising, manageable | Credit stress is building at lower-income cohorts |
Labor Market: Cooling But Not Cracking
The May 2026 jobs report was better than feared. Non-farm payrolls came in at 115,000 — well above the 62,000 consensus estimate, though below April's 178,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. ADP reported 109,000 private-sector jobs (vs. 99k estimate). Average hourly earnings grew 3.6% year-over-year, slightly above 3.5% prior. JOLTs job openings ticked down modestly to 6.866 million.
The labor market is in a difficult middle — soft enough to reduce overheating pressures but not weak enough to trigger a dovish pivot from the new Warsh-led Fed.
| Quarter | Unemployment | Monthly Payroll Trend | Labor Market View |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (actual) | 4.3% | 115k–178k range | Resilient — beat estimates; hiring slowing but not stalling |
| Q3 2026 | ~4.4%–4.5% | ~60k–90k | Cooling further; oil shock dampens services hiring |
| Q4 2026 | ~4.5%–4.6% | ~50k–75k | Soft labor demand; below-trend growth |
| Q1 2027 | ~4.5%–4.7% | ~50k–80k | Stabilization if energy shock fades and capex holds |
Inflation: The Binding Macro Constraint
Inflation is the central constraint on the outlook. Core PCE re-accelerated to 4.4% SAAR in Q1 2026. ISM Services Prices held at 70.7 in May — a level consistent with persistent services inflation. The energy shock (Brent crude at $106/b) keeps headline inflation hot. U.S. Bank expects core PCE to peak near 3.3% YoY in Q2 2026, before slowly fading.
| Quarter | Headline PCE | Core PCE | Inflation View |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Hot: ~4%+ annualized | ~3.3% YoY peak | Energy shock dominates headline; services sticky |
| Q3 2026 | Moderates if oil fades | ~3.0%–3.2% YoY | Shelter + services keep core from falling fast |
| Q4 2026 | ~3.3%–3.5% Q4/Q4 | ~3.0%–3.2% Q4/Q4 | Still well above Fed target |
| Q1 2027 | High-2s / low-3s | Approaching 2.75% | Disinflation resumes slowly; first cut becomes possible |
| Component | Direction | Macro Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 🔴 Hot — oil shock | Brent $106/b; main headline inflation driver in Q2-Q3 |
| Shelter | 🟡 Sticky but easing | Keeps core from falling quickly; multifamily supply relief coming |
| ISM Services Prices | 🔴 70.7 — very hot | Broad services pricing power; wage pass-through intact |
| Core goods | 🟡 Mixed | Tariff risk; supply chains mostly normalized |
| Food | 🟡 Modest pressure | Adds to household budget stress but not a primary driver |
Business Investment: The Expansion's Strongest Pillar
Business fixed investment is the brightest spot in the U.S. outlook. Nonresidential fixed investment surged 10.1% SAAR in Q1 2026 — the second-largest quarterly reading in this cycle. April's factory orders beat expectations by a wide margin (+12.8% MoM vs. 0.5% estimate). AI data-center buildout, semiconductor fabrication capacity (CHIPS Act), and equipment/software spending are the structural drivers.
| Area | Outlook |
|---|---|
| AI / Data Centers | Strong structural tailwind — Nvidia's new PC AI chip and hyperscaler capex commitments support multi-year buildout |
| Manufacturing / CHIPS | Positive — factory construction and semiconductor capex remain elevated |
| Equipment & Software | Positive but volatile — large beat in factory orders bodes well for Q2 |
| Small Business | Cautious — NFIB uncertainty elevated; rate sensitivity and uncertainty weigh on expansion plans |
| Productivity Upside | AI productivity gains are a key upside risk — if realized, potential GDP could rise, reducing inflation pressure |
Housing: Persistent Drag, Not a Crisis
Residential investment contracted 6.2% SAAR in Q1 2026 — the sixth contraction in eight quarters. Existing home sales ticked up to 4.02 million units in May (barely, +0.2% MoM vs. 2.1% estimate), while new home sales surprised higher at 640,000. Mortgage rates remain above 6.75%, keeping the lock-in effect powerful and limiting transaction volumes.
| Segment | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Existing home sales | 4.02M — structurally depressed by lock-in effect and affordability |
| New home sales | 640k — builder incentives sustaining demand above expectations |
| Residential investment | Mild ongoing drag; not a collapse |
| Home prices | Supported by limited resale supply; affordability limits upside |
| Multifamily | Supply pipeline adding units; rent growth pressure building |
Trade, Inventories, and External Demand
The trade deficit widened to -$60.3 billion in April 2026 (vs. -$57.3B prior) — a mechanical headwind for GDP. Imports rose to $381B and exports to $321B. Wholesale inventories rose +1.3% in April, which could support Q2 GDP but represents a future drag if demand slows. The IMF forecasts U.S. GDP growing 2.4% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2026, broadly in line with our base case.
Fed Policy: New Leadership, Hawkish Tilt
The Federal Reserve is now operating under Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has signaled a more hawkish stance than his predecessor. Economists widely expect "little room to cut in 2026" given persistent inflation. U.S. Bank forecasts two 25bp cuts: December 2026 and June 2027, leaving the terminal rate at 3.00%–3.25%. The Fed funds rate remains at its current level through most of 2026.
| Meeting Horizon | Fed View |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Hold. ISM Services Prices at 70.7 and Brent at $106/b make cutting politically and economically untenable. |
| Q3 2026 | Hold. Warsh Fed needs sustained evidence that core inflation is decelerating toward 2.5%. |
| Q4 2026 | First cut discussion only if labor softens materially and energy shock fades. Dec. 2026 cut is possible. |
| Q1 2027 | First cut more plausible if core PCE approaches 2.75% and unemployment rises to 4.6%+. |
Fiscal Policy and Debt Dynamics
Fiscal policy remains supportive in level terms but structural deficit dynamics are increasingly concerning. Large federal deficits reduce near-term recession risk but keep term premiums elevated in the Treasury market, directly pressuring mortgage rates, commercial real estate valuations, and long-duration equities.
The CBO's budget and economic outlook highlights a path of persistently rising debt-to-GDP, which constrains the government's ability to respond aggressively to a downturn. Fiscal support helps demand today at the cost of complicating the medium-term inflation and rates outlook.
Quarter-by-Quarter Outlook
Tracking Strong — Watch Inflation
GDP: 2.5%–3.7% SAAR (GDPNow)
Unemployment: 4.3%
Inflation: Hot — energy + services
Fed: On hold
Key data: Factory orders +12.8%, payrolls 115k
Oil Shock Bites Consumer
GDP: ~1.8% SAAR
Unemployment: ~4.4%–4.5%
Oil: Brent expected to moderate toward $95
Fed: Still on hold under Warsh
Below-Trend, Fed Constrained
GDP: ~1.5% SAAR
Unemployment: 4.5%–4.6%
Inflation: Core still above target
Fed: Dec. cut possible (25bp)
Stabilization — First Cut Window
GDP: ~1.7% SAAR
Unemployment: 4.5%–4.7%
Inflation: Approaching 2.75% core
Fed: First cut more plausible
Signals That Would Change the View
| Indicator | Bullish Signal | Bearish Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Payrolls | >125k/month for 2+ months | <50k/month; claims above 250k |
| Core PCE 3mo ann. | Below 2.75% | Above 3.5% |
| Brent Crude | Below $85/b sustained | Stays above $110/b into Q4 |
| ISM Services PMI | New orders above 55 | New orders below 50 |
| Michigan Sentiment | Recovery above 60 | Falls below 45 |
Key Risks
⚡ Energy Markets: 20-Year Analysis & Forward Outlook
Energy prices are the single most important macro wildcard in the current cycle. Brent crude at $106/b in May–June 2026 — driven by U.S.-Iran tensions — has reignited headline inflation and is compressing household real incomes. Understanding the 20-year price cycle illuminates where we are and where prices are likely to go.
WTI Crude Oil: Annual Average Price (2004–2026F) $/barrel
Five distinct eras — boom, shale disruption, glut, COVID spike, and current Middle East shock. EIA forecasts Brent falls to $89/b by Q4 2026 as Strait of Hormuz supply normalizes.
Henry Hub Natural Gas: Annual Average Price (2004–2026F) $/MMBtu
The shale revolution crushed gas prices from 2009 onward. Ukraine-driven spike in 2022 proved temporary. The U.S. is now the world's largest LNG exporter — a structural shift that sets a higher price floor going forward.
Five Energy Eras (2004–2026)
China-led industrial demand pushed WTI from $41 to a peak of $147/b in July 2008. Natural gas also spiked to $8.69/MMBtu. The Great Financial Crisis then crashed both — oil to $35/b in late 2008 and gas collapsed as shale supply came online.
Global demand recovery pushed WTI back above $90–$100/b from 2011–2014. Crucially, U.S. shale production soared — the Permian, Marcellus, and Bakken plays transformed the U.S. from net oil importer to net exporter by 2019. Natural gas prices collapsed to $2.75/MMBtu by 2012 as shale associated gas flooded the market.
Saudi Arabia flooded the market in late 2014 to stress-test U.S. shale economics. WTI crashed from $93 to $27/b (Feb 2016 low). A modest recovery to $60–$65 in 2018 was erased by COVID-19 in 2020, when WTI briefly traded negative (-$37/b on April 20, 2020). Henry Hub hit its lowest annual average ever — $2.03/MMBtu in 2020.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a global energy shock. WTI reached $124/b in June 2022; Brent $130/b. Henry Hub spiked to $6.45/MMBtu (annual avg) — the highest since the pre-shale era. Prices normalized as U.S. shale production recovered and LNG exports rerouted supply. WTI settled near $77–$78 in 2023–2024.
After a subdued 2024–2025 (WTI ~$70–$77), U.S.-Iran tensions in 2026 pushed Brent to $106/b as Iran halted peace talks and Strait of Hormuz risk premium spiked. The U.S. has become the world's largest LNG exporter, creating a structural price floor for Henry Hub as domestic gas competes with export demand. EIA expects prices to normalize by Q4 2026 as supply recovers.
Energy Price Forecast: Next 1–2 Quarters
| Market | Q2 2026 (Current) | Q3 2026 (Forecast) | Q4 2026 (Forecast) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | ~$106/b | ~$95–$100/b | ~$89/b (EIA STEO) | Mid East supply shock fades; OPEC+ production ramp |
| WTI Crude | ~$102/b | ~$91–$96/b | ~$85/b | Tight Brent-WTI spread; U.S. production at record highs |
| Henry Hub Gas | $2.83/MMBtu | ~$3.00–$3.25/MMBtu | ~$3.50–$4.00/MMBtu | Storage 7% above avg; injection season; rising LNG exports |
| Retail Gasoline | ~$3.90/gal | ~$3.50–$3.75/gal | ~$3.25–$3.50/gal | Follows Brent; seasonal demand moderation |
20-Year Price Reference Table
| Year | WTI ($/bbl avg) | Henry Hub ($/MMBtu avg) | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | $41 | $5.85 | China demand boom begins |
| 2005 | $57 | $8.69 | Katrina supply disruption |
| 2006 | $66 | $6.73 | Continued demand growth |
| 2007 | $72 | $6.97 | Pre-GFC peak demand |
| 2008 | $100 | $8.86 | Oil hits $147 peak; GFC crash to $35 |
| 2009 | $62 | $3.94 | GFC demand collapse; shale gas emerges |
| 2010 | $79 | $4.37 | Recovery; Marcellus shale scales up |
| 2011 | $95 | $4.00 | Arab Spring; Libya production loss |
| 2012 | $94 | $2.75 | Gas at historic low; shale glut |
| 2013 | $98 | $3.72 | Syria/geopolitical risk premium |
| 2014 | $93 | $4.37 | Saudi Arabia begins price war (Nov) |
| 2015 | $49 | $2.62 | OPEC price war crushes shale |
| 2016 | $43 | $2.62 | WTI hits $27 low; OPEC+ forms |
| 2017 | $51 | $3.02 | OPEC+ cuts support modest recovery |
| 2018 | $65 | $3.15 | Iran sanctions; Permian growth |
| 2019 | $57 | $2.56 | U.S. becomes net oil exporter |
| 2020 | $42 | $2.03 | COVID-19; WTI briefly negative (-$37) |
| 2021 | $68 | $3.91 | Post-COVID demand surge |
| 2022 | $95 | $6.45 | Russia-Ukraine war; $124 WTI peak |
| 2023 | $78 | $2.54 | Gas oversupply; OPEC+ output cut |
| 2024 | $77 | $2.21 | China demand disappoints; gas near low |
| 2025 | $70 | $3.50 | OPEC+ discord; LNG exports rise |
| 2026F | ~$102 | $2.83 Q2 / $3.50 yr | U.S.-Iran tensions; Mid East shock |
🗺 U.S. Population Trends: The Great American Migration
The United States is in the middle of a generational demographic rebalancing. The Sun Belt South continues to dominate domestic migration gains, the Midwest is quietly stable, and high-cost coastal states are losing residents and taxable income at an accelerating pace. A sharp collapse in international migration in 2025 has slowed national growth to its slowest pace since COVID-19.
State Migration Drivers
| State | 2020–2025 Change | 2024–2025 Annual | Primary Migration Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | +8.8% | +1.0% | Retirees, no income tax, Sun Belt lifestyle; +810k net domestic 2020–2024 |
| Texas | +8.0% | +1.25% | Job growth (tech, energy, logistics), no income tax, international migration |
| North Carolina | +6.2% | +1.32% | #1 state for domestic migration; Research Triangle tech boom; +384k net 2020–2024 |
| South Carolina | +6.8% | +1.46% | Fastest-growing 2024–2025; coastal appeal, Boeing, BMW manufacturing; +300k net |
| Idaho | +7.0% | +1.44% | Remote work from Pacific NW; cost of living vs. Seattle/Portland |
| Tennessee | +5.5% | +0.9% | No income tax, Nashville tech, healthcare sector; +237k net 2020–2024 |
| Arizona | +5.8% | +0.92% | Sun Belt, semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC), retirees from CA/IL |
| California | -0.1% | -0.023% | Lost 9,000 people 2024–2025; high cost, taxes, housing; IRS: -$59k AGI/person exodus |
| New York | -1.2% | -0.2% | High cost, taxes, post-COVID remote work; IRS: -$62.6k AGI/person exodus |
| Illinois | -1.4% | -0.12% | Chicago exodus; high property taxes, pension costs; IRS: -$110.6k AGI/person |
| West Virginia | -2.8% | -0.52% | Long-term industrial decline, aging population, limited economic opportunity |
Structural Trend Analysis
Economic Implications of Population Trends
| Implication | Sun Belt Winners | Coastal Losers |
|---|---|---|
| Labor Supply | Expanding workforce; supports higher non-inflationary growth | Contracting workforce; upward wage pressure, less growth capacity |
| Housing Demand | Strong structural demand for new construction in FL, TX, NC, SC | Falling demand + high supply cost = further price correction risk |
| Commercial Real Estate | Office, retail, industrial demand rising in Nashville, Charlotte, Austin, Phoenix | Office vacancy near cycle highs in NYC, SF, Chicago |
| State Tax Revenue | Broadening income-tax base (some states) and property tax windfall | Shrinking high-income tax base; pension obligations rising vs. fewer taxpayers |
| Consumer Spending | Higher retail and services activity; Sun Belt retail outperforming | Slower top-line growth; bankruptcy risk in mall/anchor retail |
| Infrastructure | Capital investment needed; roads, utilities, schools lagging rapid growth | Excess capacity; some fiscal relief but asset depreciation risk |
Equity and Capital Markets Implications
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,600 in late May 2026, posting its ninth consecutive weekly gain and a 5.2% rise for the month. Q1 2026 earnings grew an extraordinary 29%, primarily driven by AI/tech names. VIX at 15.32 signals market complacency. CFTC data shows net S&P 500 speculative positions at -103.9k — institutional investors are not as bullish as the index level implies.
Equities
Favor quality large caps, AI/data-center capex beneficiaries (Nvidia, hyperscalers), profitable technology, industrial automation, energy, and select healthcare. Be more cautious on small caps, highly levered cyclicals, housing-linked names, and low-end consumer exposure.
Rates
10-year Treasuries near 4.5%+ keep discount-rate pressure elevated. Hawkish Warsh Fed limits near-term duration appeal. Range-bound with upside volatility risk; fiscal deficits keep term premiums alive.
Credit
Carry remains attractive but spreads are tight. Investment grade looks more resilient than high yield; lower-quality credit is exposed if payrolls weaken or consumer delinquencies accelerate.
| Market Segment | Outlook Under Current Conditions | Macro Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 / Large-Cap Quality | Grind higher if earnings hold; narrow leadership | AI/capex earnings strength; record index level at 7,600 limits upside multiple |
| Nasdaq / Mega-Cap AI | Can continue leading selectively | Nvidia chip cycle + earnings growth; vulnerable to rate shock or AI spending pullback |
| Small Caps | Likely to lag until rates fall | Higher debt costs, weaker pricing power, more rate-sensitive |
| Energy Sector | Earnings beneficiary of oil shock | Brent $106/b supports upstream cash flows; also a macro-negative consumer headwind |
| Investment Grade Credit | Reasonable income; prefer intermediate duration | Nominal yields attractive; limited spread cushion |
| High Yield / Leveraged | Carry positive; asymmetric downside | Compressed spreads; refinancing risk if labor softens |
| Sun Belt Real Estate | Structural long-term outperformer | Population inflows, new household formation, infrastructure catch-up |
| Municipal Bonds | Credit quality diverging by state | High-growth Sun Belt states: credit improving. High-tax declining states: rising fiscal risk |
Indicator Dashboard to Watch
| Indicator | Latest Reading | Soft-Landing Signal | Hard-Landing / Stagflation Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE, 3-mo annualized | 4.4% (Q1 2026) | <2.75% | >3.5% |
| Payrolls | 115k (May 2026) | >100k/month | <50k/month |
| Initial Claims | 200k (May 7) | <220k | >250k–275k |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | Stable or falling | Rising above 4.7% |
| Michigan Sentiment | 48.2 — pessimistic | Recovery above 60 | Falls below 45 |
| ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | New orders above 55 | Composite below 50 |
| ISM Services Prices | 70.7 — HOT | Falls below 60 | Stays above 70 for 3+ months |
| Brent Crude | ~$106/b | <$85/b sustained | Sustained above $115/b |
| Henry Hub Gas | $2.83/MMBtu Q2 | Stable $3–$4 range | Spike above $6 (storage shortfall) |
| Atlanta GDPNow Q2 | 3.7% (May 8) | Holds above 2.5% | Fades below 1.5% |
| Mortgage Rates | >6.75% | <6.25% | >7.25% |
| Credit Spreads (HY) | Tight | Stable / tight | Rapid widening >500bp |
| S&P 500 Level | 7,600 (record) | Broad participation, rising | Breaks below 7,000; VIX spikes above 25 |
| Net Int'l Migration | 1.3M annually | Stabilizes above 1M | Falls below 500k; structural labor shortfall |
Primary Sources & References
- BEA — GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits, Q1 2026
- Atlanta Fed — GDPNow (Q2 2026 tracking: 3.7% as of May 8)
- Federal Reserve — Summary of Economic Projections, March 2026
- BEA — Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026
- BLS — Employment Situation (May 2026: 115k NFP, 4.3% unemployment)
- BLS — Consumer Price Index
- EIA — May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (Brent $89/b Q4 2026)
- EIA — Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural Gas (Henry Hub $2.83/MMBtu Q2)
- EIA — WTI Crude Oil Historical Spot Prices
- FRED / EIA — WTI Crude Oil Price (Daily)
- U.S. Census Bureau — Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration (2026)
- U.S. Census Bureau — State Population Totals 2020–2025
- Pew Research — Most States' Population Growth Slowed in 2025
- NC Governor's Office — North Carolina #1 for Domestic Migration
- Tax Foundation — State Migration Trends & IRS Data
- IMF — 2026 Article IV Consultation: United States (GDP 2.4% Q4/Q4)
- Morgan Stanley — Global Economic Outlook 2026
- U.S. Bank — Monthly Economic Outlook (Core PCE peak Q2 2026; first cut Dec. 2026)
- NAR — Top 15 States for Population and Migration Trends in 2025
- FRED — 10-Year Treasury Yield
- CBO — Budget and Economic Outlook