Equity Research · June 2026 · Aerospace & Defense
MOG.A
Moog Inc. — Class A
Precision Motion Control Systems · NYSE (Class A)
⭐ BUY Initiating Coverage
Price Target: $370
Current: $359.97 | Implied upside: +2.8%
52W: $171–$362 | Mkt Cap: $11.4B
FY2025 EPS: $7.33 | Fwd P/E: 41.1× | SmartScore: 7
Investment Thesis: Moog Inc. is the world's leading designer and manufacturer of high-performance precision motion control components for defense, commercial aerospace, space, and medical applications. With 94% of FY2025 revenue from sole-source or single-award programs, Moog commands extraordinary pricing power and revenue visibility. The stock has surged +94.3% over the past year on the strength of the NATO defense spending upcycle, record backlog, and consistent execution — rising above the lone analyst's consensus PT of $350. We set a higher internal PT of $370 based on our own EPS recovery model ($8.75E FY2026, $10.50E FY2027) and the scarcity premium this franchise commands. With expanding EBITDA margins and a secular multi-decade defense procurement cycle underway, the long-term thesis remains intact — though near-term upside is modest given the recent run.
⚠️ Coverage Note: Only 1 analyst covers MOG.A on TipRanks. Consensus PT of $350 is below current price of $359.97. Our internal PT of $370 is based on independent forward EPS modeling and reflects our own premium for the defense upcycle thesis. Small analyst coverage = potential for significant re-rating as coverage expands.
Income Statement Forecast
| Metric | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $2.93 | $3.20 | $3.55 | $3.86 | $4.20 | $4.60 |
| Rev. Growth | +5.4% | +9.2% | +10.9% | +8.7% | +8.8% | +9.5% |
| Gross Profit ($B) | $0.70 | $0.78 | $0.88 | $0.99 | $1.10 | $1.26 |
| Gross Margin | 23.9% | 24.4% | 24.8% | 25.6% | 26.2% | 27.4% |
| Op. Income ($M) | $276 | $308 | $356 | $403 | $462 | $552 |
| Op. Margin | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 12.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $372 | $416 | $462 | $490 | $576 | $690 |
| EBITDA Margin | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | $165 | $184 | $206 | $235 | $277 | $333 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.20 | $5.80 | $6.50 | $7.33 | $8.75 | $10.50 |
| FCF ($M) | $82 | $100 | $112 | $128 | $175 | $240 |
E = internal estimates (1 sell-side analyst; we model independently). FY ends September. Defense program momentum drives consistent 9–10%+ revenue CAGR.
12-Month Price vs. $370 PT
Balance Sheet & Capital Returns
| Metric | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|
| Total Assets ($B) | $3.44 | $3.58 | $3.72 | $3.90 | $4.10 | $4.40 |
| Total Debt ($B) | $1.30 | $1.22 | $1.15 | $1.10 | $0.95 | $0.75 |
| Net Debt ($B) | $1.18 | $1.08 | $1.00 | $0.95 | $0.77 | $0.51 |
| Total Equity ($B) | $2.14 | $2.36 | $2.57 | $2.80 | $3.05 | $3.38 |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.2× | 2.6× | 2.2× | 1.9× | 1.3× | 0.7× |
| Dividends Paid ($M) | $32 | $36 | $39 | $41 | $45 | $50 |
| Share Buybacks ($M) | $60 | $75 | $90 | $100 | $120 | $150 |
Valuation Framework — $370 PT
P/E — FY2026E
$370
~42× on $8.75E EPS · Defense sole-source premium; 94% sole-source programs justify premium to peer avg 30–35×
EV/EBITDA
$380
~22× FY2026E EBITDA $576M · Premium for sole-source defense programs with multi-decade program lifetimes
DCF / FCF Yield
$360
8.5% WACC, 3% TGR · FCF inflecting as capex normalizes; 1.6% FCF yield at $370 reflects growth premium
Scenario Analysis
🚀 Bull Case
$420
+17% upside
NATO defense spend acceleration drives 12%+ organic growth; new analyst coverage initiations re-rate the stock; EBITDA margins hit 16%+; FY2027E EPS reaches $12. Multiple expands as visibility premium recognized.
📊 Base Case
$370
+2.8% upside
Defense cycle continues at 9% CAGR; EBITDA margins expand to 14% by FY2027; EPS $8.75/$10.50. Stock consolidates near 52W highs as coverage expands. Our price target.
⚠️ Bear Case
$240
-33% downside
Defense budget sequestration; program delays or cancellations; FCF disappoints; multiple compresses to 25× on $9.50. Stock already above consensus PT = vulnerability to any fundamental miss.
Catalyst Timeline
Aug 2026
Q3 FY2026 Earnings
Backlog and book-to-bill commentary; space segment growth confirmation; any margin expansion beats
FY2026
New Analyst Coverage Initiations
Only 1 analyst currently covers MOG.A; new initiation reports from major banks would re-rate the stock
FY2026
NATO / DoD Program Awards
Each major contract win = multiyear revenue visibility; F-35 content, hypersonic programs, naval systems
FY2026-27
Space Segment Acceleration
Moog's satellite and launch vehicle actuation systems benefit from commercial space build-out (SpaceX, ULA)
FY2027
FCF Inflection
Capex normalization + EBITDA growth drives FCF from $128M toward $240M; enables larger buyback program
Risk Register
HIGH
Stock Above Consensus PT
At $360 vs. consensus $350, stock is technically extended; any earnings miss = outsized drawdown
MED
Defense Budget Risk
Continuing resolutions or sequestration delay program funding; typical government budget uncertainty
MED
Low Analyst Coverage
1 analyst = high earnings surprise risk in both directions; lack of institutional visibility
MED
Thin FCF Generation
$128M FCF vs. $11.4B market cap = 1.1% yield; capital intensity limits financial flexibility
LOW
Program Concentration
Large programs (F-35, CK-type) represent significant revenue; any cancellation is materially negative
Market Sentiment
Analyst Rating
Buy
1B / 0H / 0S
Consensus PT
$350
Stock above PT
Internal PT
$370
Our estimate
Short Interest
~2.4%
Moderate
Insider Activity
Neutral
Routine selling
Technical (MA)
Strong Buy
RSI 75.2 overbought
YTD Performance
+47.8%
Significant outperformance
Bottom Line — Buy · PT $370
Moog Inc. is one of the most defensible franchises in the A&D supply chain: 94% sole-source programs, precision motion control leadership across defense, space, and medical, and a track record of consistent execution through multiple defense cycles. The stock's +94.3% 12-month run reflects the market finally recognizing this value — but it has now pushed above the lone analyst's consensus target of $350. Our internal PT of $370 reflects a 42× multiple on FY2026E EPS of $8.75, justified by the sole-source premium and multi-decade program lifetimes. The near-term upside is modest, and the primary risk is the stock's technical overbought condition (RSI 75.2) and limited analyst coverage creating event risk around any fundamental miss. For long-term oriented investors, however, the secular defense spending thesis and EPS CAGR toward $10.50+ by FY2027E make Moog a quality holding. We would add aggressively on any pullback to the $300–320 range. Initiating with Buy. Price Target: $370 (+2.8%). Key catalyst: New analyst coverage initiations + Q3 FY2026 earnings backlog confirmation.